ArticleVaccine2017
Sustained reduction in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease despite waning effects of a catch-up campaign in Kilifi, Kenya: A mathematical model based on pre-vaccination data.
Article in Vaccine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- What is driving the resurgence and persistence of vaccine-targeted pneumococcal serotypes?-Serotype 19F as the paradigm.PLoS pathogens · 2026Review
- The impact of introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal patterns of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review.Globalization and health · 2021Review
- Vaccine strategies to reduce the burden of pneumococcal disease in HIV-infected adults in Africa.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi: a modelling study.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Declines in Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis in the Republic of Benin Following Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: Epidemiological and Etiological Findings, 2011-2016.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2019Article
- Sustaining pneumococcal vaccination after transitioning from Gavi support: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study in Kenya.The Lancet. Global health · 2019Article
- Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Carriage in Nigeria: a two-site, population-based survey.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn 2011, Kenya introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine together with a catch-up campaign for children aged <5years in Kilifi County. In a post-vaccination surveillance study based in Kilifi, there was a substantial decline in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). However, given the continued circulation of the vaccine serotypes it is possible that vaccine-serotype disease may re-emerge once the effects of the catch-up campaign wear off.
methodsWe developed a compartmental, age-structured dynamic model of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease for three serotype groups: the 10-valent vaccine serotypes and two groups of non-vaccine serotypes based on their susceptibility to mutual competition. The model was calibrated to age- and serotype-specific data on carriage and IPD in the pre-vaccination era and used to predict carriage prevalence and IPD up to ten years post-vaccination in Kilifi. The model was validated against the observed carriage prevalence after vaccine introduction.
resultsThe model predicts a sustained reduction in vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage prevalence from 33% to 8% in infants and from 30% to 8% in 1-5year olds over the 10-year period following vaccine introduction. The incidence of IPD is predicted to decline across all age groups resulting in an overall reduction of 56% in the population, corresponding to 10.4 cases per 100,000 per year. The vaccine-type IPD incidence is estimated to decline by 83% while non-vaccine-type IPD incidence is predicted to increase by 52%. The model's predictions of carriage prevalence agrees well with the observed data in the first five years post-vaccination.
conclusionWe predict a sustained and substantial decline in IPD through PCV vaccination and that the current regimen is insufficient to fully eliminate vaccine-serotype circulation in the model. We show that the observed impact is likely to be sustained despite waning effects of the catch-up campaign.
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