ArticleThe Journal of international medical research2018
Influence of infectious disease seasonality on the performance of the outbreak detection algorithm in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System.
Article in The Journal of international medical research, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Mainland China from 2010 to 2018.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Early Warning of Infectious Diseases in Hospitals Based on Multi-Self-Regression Deep Neural Network.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2022Article
- Evaluation of the weekly disease surveillance system for epidemic-prone diseases in Makonde District, Zimbabwe 2020: a descriptive cross-sectional study.The Pan African medical journal · 2022Article
- Analysis of Monitoring, Early Warning and Emergency Response System for New Major Infectious Diseases in China and Overseas.Current medical science · 2021Review
- Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China: A Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Research about the optimal strategies for prevention and control of varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China: based on an SEIR dynamic model.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Unrecognised Outbreak: Human parainfluenza virus infections in a pediatric oncology unit. A new diagnostic PCR and virus monitoring system may allow early detection of future outbreaks.Wellcome open research · 2018Article
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5 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objective The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention developed the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2008. The CIDARS can detect outbreak signals in a timely manner but generates many false-positive signals, especially for diseases with seasonality. We assessed the influence of seasonality on infectious disease outbreak detection performance. Methods Chickenpox surveillance data in Songjiang District, Shanghai were used. The optimized early alert thresholds for chickenpox were selected according to three algorithm evaluation indexes: sensitivity (Se), false alarm rate (FAR), and time to detection (TTD). Performance of selected proper thresholds was assessed by data external to the study period. Results The optimized early alert threshold for chickenpox during the epidemic season was the percentile P65, which demonstrated an Se of 93.33%, FAR of 0%, and TTD of 0 days. The optimized early alert threshold in the nonepidemic season was P50, demonstrating an Se of 100%, FAR of 18.94%, and TTD was 2.5 days. The performance evaluation demonstrated that the use of an optimized threshold adjusted for seasonality could reduce the FAR and shorten the TTD. Conclusions Selection of optimized early alert thresholds based on local infectious disease seasonality could improve the performance of the CIDARS.
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