Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28724978›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

Alexis Delabouglise, Marc Choisy, Thang D Phan, Nicolas Antoine-Moussiaux, Marisa Peyre, Ton D Vu, Dirk U Pfeiffer, Guillaume Fournié

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.0field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 5 countries.

Alexis DelabougliseVeterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL97TA, United Kingdom. alexis.delabouglise@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0001-5837-7052
Marc ChoisyWellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, 78 Giai Phong, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Thang D PhanCenter for Interdisciplinary Research on Rural Development, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Ngo Xuan Quang Street, Trau Quy, Gia Lam, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Nicolas Antoine-MoussiauxFARAH-Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health, University of Liège, Avenue de Cureghem 7A-7D, Liège, 4000, Belgium.
Marisa PeyreAGIRs-Animal and Integrated Risk Management Research Unit, CIRAD-Agricultural Research Center for International Development, Campus International de Baillarguet, Montpellier Cedex 5, 34398, Montpellier, France.
Ton D VuCenter for Interdisciplinary Research on Rural Development, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Ngo Xuan Quang Street, Trau Quy, Gia Lam, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Dirk U PfeifferVeterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL97TA, United Kingdom.
Guillaume FourniéVeterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL97TA, United Kingdom.
University of London · GBVietnam National University of Agriculture · VNCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement · FRCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique · FRUniversity of Liège · BE

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/L018993/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

Indexed as

SeasonsAnimalsClimateCluster AnalysisDisease OutbreaksGeographyIncidenceInfluenza in BirdsMeatPoultryTime FactorsVietnamWavelet AnalysisZoonoses

Identifiers

PMID28724978
PMCPMC5517570
OpenAlexW2734324240

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.