ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2017
Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
47 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Randomized trials of housing interventions to prevent malaria and Aedes-transmitted diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2021Pooled it
- Autochthonous dengue transmission in Europe: epidemiology, mechanisms, and modelling insights.Biology direct · 2026Review
- Scenario-driven shifts in future Usutu and West Nile virus outbreak characteristics in the Netherlands.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Meteorological drivers and short-term prediction of dengue fever in a tropical region of China: evidence from Hainan Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Predictability of infectious disease outbreak severity: Chikungunya as a case study.Science advances · 2025Article
- Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change.Trends in molecular medicine · 2025Review
- Rapid geographic expansion of local dengue community transmission in Peru.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- A renewal-equation approach to estimatingPhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025Article
- Evaluation of ebony as a potential selectable marker for genetic sexing in Aedes aegypti.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- estimateR: an R package to estimate and monitor the effective reproductive number.BMC bioinformatics · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019.Tropical medicine and health · 2023Article
- Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions.Environmental research · 2023Review
- Article
- Review
- Interactions between seasonal temperature variation and temporal synchrony drive increased arbovirus co-infection incidence.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity.PLoS biology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.