ArticleNature human behaviour2016
Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden.
Article in Nature human behaviour, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
91 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of the biological, social, and environmental determinants of intellectual disability in children and adolescents.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2022Pooled it
- A meta-analytic investigation of the role of reward on inhibitory control.Quarterly journal of experimental psychology (2006) · 2021Pooled it
- The Relationship between Family Violence and Self-Control in Adolescence: A Multi-Level Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Pooled it
- A randomized controlled trial testing the efficacy of a Nurse Home Visiting Program for Pregnant Adolescents.Scientific reports · 2021Trial
- Child Birth Order as a Moderator of Intervention Effectiveness for the Early Childhood Version of the Family Check-Up.Prevention science : the official journal of the Society for Prevention Research · 2020Trial
- Prenatal neural network organization and later executive function development.Developmental cognitive neuroscience · 2026Article
- A multilevel systems approach to resilience after childhood adversity.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2026Article
- The Longitudinal Relationship Between Self-Reported Executive Function and Mental Health in Early Adolescence.JAACAP open · 2026Article
- Associations between childhood threat and deprivation experiences, self- and other-mentalizing, and adult psychopathology: evidence from a community sample.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- The Promise of Integrating Health and Corrections Datasets: A Short Report on Familial Impact of Parental Justice System Involvement.American journal of criminal justice : AJCJ · 2026Article
- Reduced social support perpetuates disadvantage across the lifespan for Australian women.BMC women's health · 2025Article
- Trajectories towards poor mental health: Can general practice contribute to prevention of bad outcomes for young children?The European journal of general practice · 2025Article
- Inclusion in Motion: Promoting Equitable Physical Activity and Health in Childhood and Adolescence.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Multilevel multiverse meta-analysis indicates lower IQ as a risk factor for physical and mental illness.Communications psychology · 2025Article
- Latent trajectories of mental health service use in an Australian state population cohort of children.The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry · 2025Article
- Income, education, and the clustering of risk in cardiovascular disease in the US, 1999-2018: an observational study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Social exclusion as a major outcome domain of psychotic disorders: early predictors, and associations with non-recovery and clinical staging 21 years after a first episode of psychosis.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2025Observational
- The role of social support in reducing the long-term burden of cumulative childhood adversity on adulthood internalising disorder.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2024Article
- Suicides, drug poisonings, and alcohol-related deaths cluster with health and social disadvantage in 4.1 million citizens from two nations.Psychological medicine · 2024Article
- Increased family psychosocial focus during children's developmental assessments: a study of parents' views.BMC pediatrics · 2024Article
31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Policy-makers are interested in early-years interventions to ameliorate childhood risks. They hope for improved adult outcomes in the long run, bringing return on investment. How much return can be expected depends, partly, on how strongly childhood risks forecast adult outcomes. But there is disagreement about whether childhood determines adulthood. We integrated multiple nationwide administrative databases and electronic medical records with the four-decade Dunedin birth-cohort study to test child-to-adult prediction in a different way, by using a population-segmentation approach. A segment comprising one-fifth of the cohort accounted for 36% of the cohort's injury insurance-claims; 40% of excess obese-kilograms; 54% of cigarettes smoked; 57% of hospital nights; 66% of welfare benefits; 77% of fatherless childrearing; 78% of prescription fills; and 81% of criminal convictions. Childhood risks, including poor age-three brain health, predicted this segment with large effect sizes. Early-years interventions effective with this population segment could yield very large returns on investment.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.