Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28703300›Full record

ArticleHepatology (Baltimore, Md.)2017

A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score.

Lisa B VanWagner, Hongyan Ning, Maureen Whitsett, Josh Levitsky, Sarah Uttal, John T Wilkins, Michael M Abecassis, Daniela P Ladner, Anton I Skaro, Donald M Lloyd-Jones

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
48citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

48 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lisa B VanWagnerDepartment of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.ORCID 0000-0002-6264-2573
Hongyan NingDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Maureen WhitsettDepartment of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Josh LevitskyDepartment of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Sarah UttalNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
John T WilkinsDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Michael M AbecassisNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Daniela P LadnerNorthwestern University Transplant Outcomes Research Collaborative, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Anton I SkaroDepartment of Surgery, Division of General Surgery and Multi-Organ Transplant, University of Western Ontario Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, London, ON, Canada.
Donald M Lloyd-JonesDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.

Funding

Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Science Institute (NUCATS)UL1TR001422 · NCATS · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI D'AQUILA, RICHARD · 2015 to 2023
$56.8M
Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Science Institute (NUCATS)KL2TR001424 · NCATS · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI SHARMA, LEENA · 2015 to 2023
$8.1M
Derivation and validation of a cardiac risk index in liver transplantationF32HL116151 · NHLBI · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI VANWAGNER, LISA B · 2012 to 2013
$122k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR001424NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001422NHLBI NIH HHS F32 HL116151NHLBI NIH HHS L30 HL129581
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33).

conclusionThe point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at www.carolt.us); this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979).

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesLiver TransplantationPostoperative ComplicationsAdultAgedDecision Support TechniquesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk Assessment

Identifiers

PMID28703300
PMCPMC5696007

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.