ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Future temperature-related mortality in various climate change and adaptation scenarios in Finland.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Health Disparities and Maladaptive Behavior in Response to Extreme Heat: Impacts on Mental Health Among Older Adults.Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services · 2024Article
- A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Perception of extreme hot weather and the corresponding adaptations among older adults and service providers-A qualitative study in Hong Kong.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Possible adaptation measures for climate change in preventing heatstroke among older adults in Japan.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Nationwide Analysis of the Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: The Role of Population Aging.Environmental health perspectives · 2022Article
- Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2021Article
- Projections of Ambient Temperature- and Air Pollution-Related Mortality Burden Under Combined Climate Change and Population Aging Scenarios: a Review.Current environmental health reports · 2020Review
- Heat wave-related mortality in Sweden: A case-crossover study investigating effect modification by neighbourhood deprivation.Scandinavian journal of public health · 2020Article
- Article
- General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Review
- Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.
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