Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28684788›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Environmentally driven extinction and opportunistic origination explain fern diversification patterns.

Samuli Lehtonen, Daniele Silvestro, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Christopher Scotese, Hanna Tuomisto, Michael Kessler, Carlos Peña, Niklas Wahlberg, Alexandre Antonelli

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
50citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

50 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  7. Global Diversification Rates of Ferns Across Spatial and Climatic Gradients.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. The fate of South America's endemic mammalian fauna in response to the most dramatic Cenozoic climate disruption.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
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  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. The Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution buffered ants against extinction.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Samuli LehtonenHerbarium, Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland. samuli.lehtonen@utu.fi.ORCID 0000-0001-6235-2026
Daniele SilvestroDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22B, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden. daniele.silvestro@bioenv.gu.se.
Dirk Nikolaus KargerDepartment of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
Christopher ScoteseEarth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
Hanna TuomistoDepartment of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.ORCID 0000-0003-1640-490X
Michael KesslerDepartment of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, 8008, Zurich, Switzerland.
Carlos PeñaDepartment of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
Niklas WahlbergDepartment of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
Alexandre AntonelliDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22B, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-1842-9297

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Combining palaeontological and neontological data offers a unique opportunity to investigate the relative roles of biotic and abiotic controls of species diversification, and the importance of origination versus extinction in driving evolutionary dynamics. Ferns comprise a major terrestrial plant radiation with an extensive evolutionary history providing a wealth of modern and fossil data for modelling environmental drivers of diversification. Here we develop a novel Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate correlations between diversification dynamics and multiple environmental trajectories. We estimate the impact of different factors on fern diversification over the past 400 million years by analysing a comprehensive dataset of fossil occurrences and complement these findings by analysing a large molecular phylogeny. We show that origination and extinction rates are governed by fundamentally different processes: originations depend on within-group diversity but are largely unaffected by environmental changes, whereas extinctions are strongly affected by external factors such as climate and geology. Our results indicate that the prime driver of fern diversity dynamics is environmentally driven extinction, with origination being an opportunistic response to diminishing ecospace occupancy.

Identifiers

PMID28684788
PMCPMC5500532

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.