ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2017
The intervention effect of local alcohol licensing policies on hospital admission and crime: a natural experiment using a novel Bayesian synthetictime-series method.
Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of interventions that impact alcohol and other drug-related harms in licensed entertainment settings and outdoor music festivals.Harm reduction journal · 2024Pooled it
- Evaluating the impact of local alcohol licensing decisions on outcomes for the community: a systematic review.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Offering an auto-play feature likely increases total gambling activity at online slot-machines: preliminary evidence from an interrupted time series experiment at a real-life online casino.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2024Article
- The impact of mass vaccination policy and control measures on lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand: insights from a Bayesian structural time series analysis.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in an urban community of Bangladesh.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Establishing the Relative Accuracy of Using City Directories as Proxies to Define and Reconstruct Historical Alcohol Environments.Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs · 2023Article
- Factors Associated with Unwanted Sexual Attention in Australian Nightlife Districts: An Exploratory Study of Nightlife Attendees.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2022Article
- Impact of public health team engagement in alcohol licensing on health and crime outcomes in England and Scotland: A comparative timeseries study between 2012 and 2019.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Addressing alcohol-related harms in the local night-time economy: a qualitative process evaluation from a complex systems perspective.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Hunger relief: A natural experiment from additional SNAP benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2022Article
- Environmental Prevention: Why Do We Need It Now and How to Advance It?Journal of prevention (2022) · 2022Article
- Forecasting the Trends of Covid-19 and Causal Impact of Vaccines Using Bayesian Structural time Series and ARIMA.Annals of data science · 2022Article
- Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040.Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research · 2021Article
- The Economic Impact of the SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic in Spain.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for evaluating an intervention by using observational time series data on multiple outcomes.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2021Article
- Article
- Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Reductions in Tuberculosis Cases and the Epidemiological Trends in China: A Causal Impact Analysis.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Forecasting the patterns of COVID-19 and causal impacts of lockdown in top five affected countries using Bayesian Structural Time Series Models.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundControl of alcohol licensing at local government level is a key component of alcohol policy in England. There is, however, only weak evidence of any public health improvement. We used a novel natural experiment design to estimate the impact of new local alcohol licensing policies on hospital admissions and crime.
methodsWe used Home Office licensing data (2007-2012) to identify (1) interventions: local areas where both a cumulative impact zone and increased licensing enforcement were introduced in 2011; and (2) controls: local areas with neither. Outcomes were 2009-2015 alcohol-related hospital admissions, violent and sexual crimes, and antisocial behaviour. Bayesian structural time series were used to create postintervention synthetic time series (counterfactuals) based on weighted time series in control areas. Intervention effects were calculated from differences between measured and expected trends. Validation analyses were conducted using randomly selected controls.
results5 intervention and 86 control areas were identified. Intervention was associated with an average reduction in alcohol-related hospital admissions of 6.3% (95% credible intervals (CI) -12.8% to 0.2%) and to lesser extent with a reduced in violent crimes, especially up to 2013 (-4.6%, 95% CI -10.7% to 1.4%). There was weak evidence of an effect on sexual crimes up 2013 (-8.4%, 95% CI -21.4% to 4.6%) and insufficient evidence of an effect on antisocial behaviour as a result of a change in reporting.
conclusionModerate reductions in alcohol-related hospital admissions and violent and sexual crimes were associated with introduction of local alcohol licensing policies. This novel methodology holds promise for use in other natural experiments in public health.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.