ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate change and human health in the urban environment of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: A workshop report.AIMS public health · 2026Article
- Climate change and human health in Alpine environments: an interdisciplinary impact chain approach understanding today's risks to address tomorrow's challenges.BMJ global health · 2024Review
- Strengthening crisis resilience in German primary care by using quality indicators: findings of a process evaluation in the RESILARE project.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2024Article
- Projected changes in heatwaves over Central and South America using high-resolution regional climate simulations.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Onset of cardiovascular drift during progressive heat stress in young adults (PSU HEAT project).Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985) · 2023Article
- Free-living core body temperature monitoring using a wrist-worn sensor after COVID-19 booster vaccination: a pilot study.Biomedical engineering online · 2023Article
- Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions.Environmental research · 2023Review
- Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Core temperature responses to compensable versus uncompensable heat stress in young adults (PSU HEAT Project).Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985) · 2022Article
- Climate change, trauma and mental health in Italy: a scoping review.European journal of psychotraumatology · 2022Article
- Lateral public health: Advancing systemic resilience to climate change.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Review
- Heat Extremes, Public Health Impacts, and Adaptation Policy in Germany.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.Climatic change · 2020Article
- Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007⁻2016.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Hands-on Tutorial on a Modeling Framework for Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Health.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2019Article
- General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.Environmental health perspectives · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.
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