ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2017
Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- The HIV/AIDS Epidemiological Challenges: Why is HIV Incidence Rising While AIDS Incidence and Mortality are Declining in Brazil?Journal of community health · 2026Article
- Development and Spatial External Validation of a Predictive Model of Survival Based on Random Survival Forest Analysis for People Living With HIV and AIDS After Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in China: Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Impact of increased diagnosis of early HIV infection and immediate antiretroviral treatment initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- IFI27 is a potential therapeutic target for HIV infection.Annals of medicine · 2022Article
- Cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and expanded antiretroviral therapy for preventing HIV infections in the presence of drug resistance among men who have sex with men in China: A mathematical modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Modelling the impact of universal influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza with different subtypes.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Data-driven prediction and origin identification of epidemics in population networks.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- A mathematical model for HIV prevention and control among men who have sex with men in China.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- An activator of G protein-coupled receptor and MEK1/2-ERK1/2 signaling inhibits HIV-1 replication by altering viral RNA processing.PLoS pathogens · 2020Article
- Article
- Cardiac glycoside/aglycones inhibit HIV-1 gene expression by a mechanism requiring MEK1/2-ERK1/2 signaling.Scientific reports · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of drug-sensitive HIV transmission but may increase the transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We used a mathematical model to estimate the long-term population-level benefits of ART and determine the scenarios under which earlier ART (treatment at 1 year post-infection, on average) could decrease simultaneously both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence (new infections). We constructed an infection-age-structured mathematical model that tracked the transmission rates over the course of infection and modelled the patients' life expectancy as a function of ART initiation timing. We fitted this model to the annual AIDS incidence and death data directly, and to resistance data and demographic data indirectly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Using counterfactual scenarios, we assessed the impact on total and drug-resistant HIV incidence of ART initiation timing, frequency of acquired drug resistance, and second-line drug effectiveness (defined as the combination of resistance monitoring, biomedical drug efficacy and adherence). Earlier ART initiation could decrease the number of both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence when second-line drug effectiveness is sufficiently high (greater than 80%), but increase the proportion of new infections that are drug resistant. Thus, resistance may paradoxically appear to be increasing while actually decreasing.
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