ArticleNature2017
Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals.
Article in Nature, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 591 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
591 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- 2000-2025: A Quarter of a Century of Studies on Pet Ownership in the Amazon-Epidemiological Implications for Public Health.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Pooled it
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Emerging Viral Zoonotic Diseases, 2016-2026.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Characterizing the Bat Virome of Vietnam: A Systematic Review of Viral Diversity and Zoonotic Potential.Viruses · 2025Pooled it
- Diversity and transmission and zoonotic potential of microbes in true insectivores.Nature communications · 2025Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Review
- Global status, bias risks, and ecological integration of wild bat and rodent virome research.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Exploring the impacts of wildlife trade on zoonotic spillover and disease outbreaks: A multiple-perspective study.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Detection of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in Black-Horned Capuchin Monkeys, Brazil.EcoHealth · 2026Article
- Predicting unknown mammalian viral hosts with Dynamic Positive-Unlabeled learning.Nature communications · 2026Article
- A divergent betacoronavirus with a functional furin cleavage site in South American bats.Nature communications · 2026Article
- RNA Virus Diversity, Cross-Species Transmission, and Molecular Constraints in Two Closely Related Rat Species.Integrative zoology · 2026Article
- Species-specific barriers restrict virus spillover potential across the Caenorhabditis genus.PLoS biology · 2026Article
- Metatranscriptomics reveals urbanization-driven divergence in rodent viromes and zoonotic risks in Chinese megacities.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Insectivores exhibit superior microbial network connectivity and elevated zoonotic risk by 2035 relative to rodents and bats.Science China. Life sciences · 2026Article
- Emerging Viral Zoonoses: Epidemiology, Vaccination Strategies, and Implications for Global Public Health.Vaccines · 2026Review
- Cross-clade vaccination to overcome sarbecovirus or merbecovirus neutralization gaps.Cell reports · 2026Article
- Changing landscapes, shifting reservoirs: land-use change andApplied and environmental microbiology · 2026Article
- Targeting Zoonotic Spillover Drivers for Global Pandemic Prevention: A Narrative Review.Microorganisms · 2026Review
- Applying one health approaches to addressing disease risks in wildlife trade: Insights from a special issue.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
531 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.