Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28633681›Full record

ArticleDisaster medicine and public health preparedness2018

COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters.

Jonathan M Links, Brian S Schwartz, Sen Lin, Norma Kanarek, Judith Mitrani-Reiser, Tara Kirk Sell, Crystal R Watson, Doug Ward, Cathy Slemp, Robert Burhans and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Disaster medicine and public health preparedness, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
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  5. Pandemic Performance Measures of Resilience for Healthcare and Education in the Netherlands.The International journal of health planning and management · 2025
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  18. Toward data-driven, dynamical complex systems approaches to disaster resilience.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Jonathan M Links1Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Brian S Schwartz1Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Sen Lin3Department of Civil Engineering,Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering,Baltimore,Maryland.
Norma Kanarek1Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Judith Mitrani-Reiser3Department of Civil Engineering,Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering,Baltimore,Maryland.
Tara Kirk Sell1Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Crystal R Watson1Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Doug Ward4Division of Public Safety Leadership,Johns Hopkins School of Education,Baltimore,Maryland.
Cathy Slemp9Independent Consultants.
Robert Burhans9Independent Consultants.
Kimberly Gill6Disaster Research Center,University of Delaware,Newark,Delaware.
Tak Igusa3Department of Civil Engineering,Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering,Baltimore,Maryland.
Xilei Zhao3Department of Civil Engineering,Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering,Baltimore,Maryland.
Benigno Aguirre6Disaster Research Center,University of Delaware,Newark,Delaware.
Joseph Trainor6Disaster Research Center,University of Delaware,Newark,Delaware.
Joanne Nigg6Disaster Research Center,University of Delaware,Newark,Delaware.
Thomas Inglesby1Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Eric Carbone7Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Atlanta,Georgia.
James M Kendra6Disaster Research Center,University of Delaware,Newark,Delaware.

Funding

Intramural CDC HHS CC999999OPHPR CDC HHS P01 TP000288
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePolicy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.

methodsWe developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties.

resultsThe conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.

conclusionsThe work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127-137).

Indexed as

Adaptation, PsychologicalModels, TheoreticalDisaster PlanningDisaster VictimsHumansReproducibility of ResultsResidence CharacteristicsSystems Analysiscommunity functioningresiliencesystem dynamics

Identifiers

PMID28633681
PMCPMC8743042

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.