Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28630525›Full record

ArticleComputational statistics & data analysis2017

A Bayesian adaptive design for clinical trials in rare diseases.

S Faye Williamson, Peter Jacko, Sofía S Villar, Thomas Jaki

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Computational statistics & data analysis, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Bayesian Approaches for Confirmatory Trials in Rare Diseases: Opportunities and Challenges.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Review
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Using biomarkers to allocate patients in a response-adaptive clinical trial.Communications in statistics: Simulation and computation · 2023
    Article
  8. Response-adaptive randomization in clinical trials: from myths to practical considerations.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2023
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Power Constrained Bandits.Proceedings of machine learning research · 2021
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

S Faye WilliamsonDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, UK.
Peter JackoDepartment of Management Science, Lancaster University, UK.
Sofía S VillarMRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK.
Thomas JakiDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, UK.

Funding

Department of Health SRF-2015-08-001Medical Research Council MC_UP_1302/2Medical Research Council MC_UU_00002/3
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Development of treatments for rare diseases is challenging due to the limited number of patients available for participation. Learning about treatment effectiveness with a view to treat patients in the larger outside population, as in the traditional fixed randomised design, may not be a plausible goal. An alternative goal is to treat the patients within the trial as effectively as possible. Using the framework of finite-horizon Markov decision processes and dynamic programming (DP), a novel randomised response-adaptive design is proposed which maximises the total number of patient successes in the trial and penalises if a minimum number of patients are not recruited to each treatment arm. Several performance measures of the proposed design are evaluated and compared to alternative designs through extensive simulation studies using a recently published trial as motivation. For simplicity, a two-armed trial with binary endpoints and immediate responses is considered. Simulation results for the proposed design show that: (i) the percentage of patients allocated to the superior arm is much higher than in the traditional fixed randomised design; (ii) relative to the optimal DP design, the power is largely improved upon and (iii) it exhibits only a very small bias and mean squared error of the treatment effect estimator. Furthermore, this design is fully randomised which is an advantage from a practical point of view because it protects the trial against various sources of bias. As such, the proposed design addresses some of the key issues that have been suggested as preventing so-called bandit models from being implemented in clinical practice.

Indexed as

Bandit modelsBayesian adaptive designsClinical trialsDynamic programmingRare diseasesSequential allocation

Identifiers

PMID28630525
PMCPMC5473477

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.