Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28627378›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2018

Practical risk score for 5-, 10-, and 20-year prediction of dementia in elderly persons: Framingham Heart Study.

Jinlei Li, Matthew Ogrodnik, Sherral Devine, Sanford Auerbach, Philip A Wolf, Rhoda Au

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
44citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

44 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Multisystem failure, tipping points, and risk of Alzheimer's disease.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jinlei LiDepartment of Epidemiology, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China; Department of Graduate Medical Sciences, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Matthew OgrodnikDepartment of Graduate Medical Sciences, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Sherral DevineDepartment of Anatomy & Neurobiology, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA; Framingham Heart Study, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Sanford AuerbachFramingham Heart Study, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Neurology, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Philip A WolfDepartment of Graduate Medical Sciences, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Rhoda AuDepartment of Graduate Medical Sciences, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA; Framingham Heart Study, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Neurology, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: rhodaau@bu.edu.

Funding

Neuropathology CoreP30AG013846 · NIA · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI KOWALL, NEIL W. · 1996 to 2020
$29.1M
PRECURSORS OF STROKE INCIDENCE AND PROGNOSISR01NS017950 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCIENCE CENTER · PI Hugo Javier Aparicio, Jose Rafael Romero · 1985 to 2026
$22.9M
EPIDEMIOLOGY OF DEMENTIA IN THE FRAMINGHAM STUDYR01AG008122 · NIA · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI AU, RHODA, SESHADRI, SUDHA · 1989 to 2015
$14.4M
MRI, Genetics &Cognitive Precursors of AD &DementiaR01AG016495 · NIA · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI AU, RHODA · 1999 to 2016
$12.5M
MRI, Cognitive, Genetic & Biomarker Precursors of AD & Dementia in Young AdultsR01AG033040 · NIA · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI AU, RHODA, SESHADRI, SUDHA · 2009 to 2019
$11.2M
THE FRAMINGHAM HEART STUDY-N01HC25195-268025195-268025195N01HC025195 · HC · TRUSTEES OF BOSTON UNIVERSITY · PI WOLF, PHILIP A · 2002 to 2006
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NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500001CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500001INHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC025195NIA NIH HHS P30 AG013846NIA NIH HHS R01 AG008122NIA NIH HHS R01 AG016495NIA NIH HHS R01 AG033040NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS017950
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWith a rapidly aging population, general practitioners are confronting the challenge of how to determine those who are at greatest risk for dementia and potentially need more specialized follow-up to mitigate symptoms early in its course. We created a practical dementia risk score and provided individualized estimates of future dementia risk.

methodsUsing the Framingham Heart Study data, we built our prediction model using Cox proportional hazard models and developed a point system for the risk score and risk estimates.

resultsThe score system used total points ranging from -1 to 31 and stratifies individuals into different levels of risk. We estimated 5-, 10-, and 20-year dementia risk prediction and incorporated these into the points system. DISCUSSION: This risk score system provides a practical tool because all included predictors are easy to assess by practitioners. It can be used to estimate future probabilities of dementia for individuals.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionDementiaFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMental Status ScheduleMiddle AgedNeuropsychological TestsPredictive Value of TestsProportional Hazards ModelsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsTime FactorsDementiaFramingham Heart StudyPredictionRisk factorRisk score

Identifiers

PMID28627378
PMCPMC5729055

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.