ArticleScientific reports2017
Quantitative modelling of hip fracture trends in 14 European countries: testing variations of a shared reversal over time.
Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Lumbar spine DXA T-score and QCT BMD cutpoint values for defining osteofrailia among older men: a framework for further refinement.Skeletal radiology · 2026Review
- Artificial intelligence enabled prediction of hip fragility fracture risk using hip radiograph: an attractive approach yet more work needs to be done.Skeletal radiology · 2026Article
- Majority of hip fragility fractures among older people can be predicted by a DXA examination: an updated analysis of literature results and empirical Chinese data with a focus on the validation of the newly proposed osteofrailia criterion for men.Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2025Article
- Lower osteoporotic-like vertebral fractural deformity (OLVF) prevalence and severity among older Thais and Indonesians than among older Chinese.Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2025Article
- The incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability of forearm fractures: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Fewer spine degenerations among Southeast Asians than among Southern Chinese suggests populations from a warmer climate have inherently better spine health.Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2024Article
- Challenges of translating epidemiologic research: An application to rheumatic and musculoskeletal disorders.Global epidemiology · 2021Article
- Epidemiology and mortality of pelvic and femur fractures-a nationwide register study of 417,840 fractures in Sweden across 16 years: diverging trends for potentially lethal fractures.Acta orthopaedica · 2021Article
- Polypharmacy and injurious falls in older adults: a nationwide nested case-control study.Clinical epidemiology · 2019Article
- Osteoinductive 3D scaffolds prepared by blend centrifugal spinning for long-term delivery of osteogenic supplements.RSC advances · 2018Article
- Continuously declining incidence of fall injuries in older adults: nationwide statistics from Finland between 1970 and 2016.European geriatric medicine · 2018Article
- Identification and management of patients at increased risk of osteoporotic fracture: outcomes of an ESCEO expert consensus meeting.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2017Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
Qualitative similarities between hip fracture trends in different countries suggests variations of the same epidemic. We tested a single statistical shape to describe time trends in Europe, while allowing for country-level variability. Using data from 14 countries, we modelled incidence rates over time using linear mixed-effects models, including the fixed effects of calendar year and age. Random effects were tested to quantify country-level variability in background rates, timing of trend reversal and tempo of reversal. Mixture models were applied to identify clusters of countries defined by common behavioural features. A quadratic function of time, with random effects for background rates and timing of trend reversal, adjusted well to the observed data. Predicted trend reversal occurred on average in 1999 in women (peak incidence about 600 per 100 000) and 2000 in men (about 300 per 100 000). Mixture modelling of country-level effects suggested three clusters for women and two for men. In both sexes, Scandinavia showed higher rates but earlier trend reversals, whereas later trend reversals but lower peak incidences were found in Southern Europe and most of Central Europe. Our finding of a similar overall reversal pattern suggests that different countries show variations of a shared hip fracture epidemic.
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