ArticleBMC infectious diseases2017
Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Integrating vulnerability and hazard in malaria risk mapping: the elimination context of Senegal.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Spatial Modelling of Risk Factors for Malaria Prevalence in SNNP Regional State, Ethiopia.Ethiopian journal of health sciences · 2021Article
- Remote sensing of environmental risk factors for malaria in different geographic contexts.International journal of health geographics · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThis paper studies the effect of mosquito abundance and malaria incidence in the last 3 weeks, and their interaction, on the hazard of time to malaria in a previously studied cohort of children in Ethiopia.
methodsWe model the mosquito abundance and time to malaria data jointly in a Bayesian framework.
resultsWe found that the interaction of mosquito abundance and incidence plays a prominent role on malaria risk. We quantify and compare relative risks of various factors, and determine the predominant role of the interaction between incidence and mosquito abundance in describing malaria risk. Seasonal rain patterns, distance to a water source of the households, temperature and relative humidity are all significant in explaining mosquito abundance, and through this affect malaria risk.
conclusionAnalyzing jointly the time to malaria data and the mosquito abundance allows a precise comparison of factors affecting the spread of malaria. The effect of the interaction between mosquito abundances and local presence of malaria parasites has an important effect on the hazard of time to malaria, beyond abundance alone. Each additional one km away from the dam gives an average reduction of malaria relative risk of 5.7%. The importance of the interaction between abundance and incidence leads to the hypothesis that preventive intervention could advantageously target the infectious population, in addition to mosquito control, which is the typical intervention today.
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