Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28605503›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2017

Behavioural, not biological, factors drive the HCV epidemic among HIV-positive MSM: HCV and HIV modelling analysis including HCV treatment-as-prevention impact.

Louis MacGregor, Natasha K Martin, Christinah Mukandavire, Ford Hickson, Peter Weatherburn, Matthew Hickman, Peter Vickerman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Louis MacGregorSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Natasha K MartinSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Christinah MukandavireSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Ford HicksonLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Peter WeatherburnLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Matthew HickmanSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Peter VickermanSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.

Funding

Modeling Structural HIV Determinants in Substance Users and related populationsR01DA037773 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA, STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2015 to 2017
$1.4M
Department of Health RP-DG-0610-10055NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA037773
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Uncertainty surrounds why hepatitis C virus (HCV) is concentrated among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We used mathematical modelling to explore reasons for these infection patterns, and implications for HCV treatment-as-prevention. Methods: Using a joint MSM HIV/HCV transmission model parameterized with UK behavioural data, we considered how biological (heightened HCV infectivity and reduced spontaneous clearance among HIV-positive MSM) and/or behavioural factors (preferential sexual mixing by HIV status and risk heterogeneity) could concentrate HCV infection in HIV-positive MSM as commonly observed (5-20 times the HCV prevalence in HIV-negative MSM; defined as the HCV ratio). We explored how HCV treatment-as-prevention impact varies under differing HCV ratios. Results: Biological factors produced low HCV ratios (< 3), not explaining the skewed epidemic. However, combining preferential mixing by HIV status with sexual risk behaviour heterogeneity produced high HCV ratios (> 10) that were highly sensitive to both factors. Irrespective of the HCV ratio or behavioural/biological factors, HCV treatment of HIV-diagnosed MSM markedly reduced the HCV prevalence among HIV-positive MSM, but less impact was achieved among all MSM for lower HCV ratios. Conclusions: Sexual behaviour patterns likely drive observed HCV infection patterns among HIV-positive MSM. Changes in these patterns could disseminate HCV amongst HIV-negative MSM, limiting the impact of targeting HCV treatment to HIV-diagnosed MSM.

Indexed as

Homosexuality, MaleAdolescentAdultAgedCoinfectionEpidemicsHepacivirusHepatitis CHIV InfectionsHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk FactorsRisk-TakingUnited Kingdomantiviral treatmentHepatitis C virusHIVmen who have sex with menprevention

Identifiers

PMID28605503
PMCPMC5837478

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.