Pharmacy refill data can be used to predict virologic failure for patients on antiretroviral therapy in Brazil.

introductionPharmacy adherence measures such as pharmacy dispensing ratios (PDRs) have previously been shown to be predictive of virologic outcomes. We aimed to determine the optimal interval of PDR assessment for predicting virologic failure for HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

methodsUsing national Brazilian ART pharmacy refill data, we examined PDRs for patients ≥18 years of age with at least one HIV RNA level ≥180 days after ART initiation on or after 1 January 2011. Patients with a documented ART change ≤270 days prior to viral load test date were excluded. Logistic regression models were used to describe associations between virologic failure, defined as an HIV RNA level ≥400 copies/mL and PDRs, defined as the number of days index drug dispensed (non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor or protease inhibitor) per 180- and 90-day, interval preceding viral load testing, adjusting for sex, age, race, time since ART initiation and index drug. Backward elimination of insignificant variables was performed after adjusting for PDR. A predictive probability of virologic failure was calculated using the corresponding odds ratios for the PDR and any other significant variables. The diagnostic performance of the PDR interval was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the predictive probability with respect to virologic failure.

conclusionsThe validation and use of the pharmacy dispensing ratio using public pharmacy refill data could aid in early identification of patients with poor adherence and prevent development of treatment failure and drug resistance in Brazil.