ArticleMemorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz2017
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination.
Article in Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Measuring endemicity and burden of leprosy across countries and regions: A systematic review and Delphi survey.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Pooled it
- Article
- Exploring the Neurological Manifestations of Leprosy: Clinical Insights and Implications.Cureus · 2025Review
- Activated TLR2/4-positive T cells boost cell exhaustion during lepromatous leprosy infection via PD-1 upregulation.Heliyon · 2022Article
- Article
- Risk areas for the occurrence of leprosy in border countries of South America - Brazil and Argentina.PloS one · 2022Article
- Article
- Underlying mechanisms of leprosy recurrence in the Western Amazon: a retrospective cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Hanseniasis in the municipality of Western Amazon (Acre, Brazil): are we far from the goal of the World Health Organization?: Hansen and Western Amazon.The Brazilian journal of infectious diseases : an official publication of the Brazilian Society of Infectious DiseasesArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCorrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking.
objectivesWe analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020.
methodsDescriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods.
resultsWe found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN
conclusionsCorrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.
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