Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28590580›Full record

ArticleMovement disorders : official journal of the Movement Disorder Society2018

Projection of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the coming decades: Revisited.

Alexander Rossi, Kristin Berger, Honglei Chen, Douglas Leslie, Richard B Mailman, Xuemei Huang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Movement disorders : official journal of the Movement Disorder Society, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 86 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
86citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

86 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Outcomes following spinal instrumented fusions in patients with parkinson's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2024
    Pooled it
  2. Review
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  4. Article
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  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. The Burden of Parkinson's Disease Based on the GBD 2021.International journal of public health · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Parkinson Disease and the Gut: A Primer for Gastroenterologists.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2025
    Review
  12. Skeletal MuscleDiagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Review
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  20. Article

26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Alexander RossiPennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.
Kristin BergerPennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.
Honglei ChenDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
Douglas LeslieDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.
Richard B MailmanDepartment of Neurology, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.
Xuemei HuangDepartment of Neurology, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.

Funding

WRITING AND THE DAILY EXPERIENCE OF ILLNESSM01RR010732 · NCRR · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR · PI MACNEILL, COLIN · 1995 to 2009
$29.8M
Multimodal MRI Markers of Nigrostriatal Pathology in Parkinson's DiseaseU01NS082151 · NINDS · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR · PI HUANG, XUEMEI · 2012 to 2016
$4.2M
Structural MRI marker(s) of Parkinson's Disease's ProgressionR01NS060722 · NINDS · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR · PI HUANG, XUEMEI · 2009 to 2013
$2.9M
GCRC RELOCATION AND EXPANSION PROJECTC06RR016499 · NCRR · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR · PI KIRCH, DARRELL G · 2001 to 2001
$707k
Indices of Motor Synergies as Early Biomarkers of Parkinson's DiseaseR21NS095873 · NINDS · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE · PI HUANG, XUEMEI, LATASH, MARK L · 2016 to 2017
$423k
NCRR NIH HHS C06 RR016499NCRR NIH HHS M01 RR010732NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS060722NINDS NIH HHS R21 NS095873NINDS NIH HHS U01 NS082151
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePrevious studies have estimated future PD prevalence based on population aging. This study revisits that projection by accounting for the potential impact of declining rates of smoking.

methodsThe age- and gender-stratified smoking prevalence in the United States from 2000 to 2040 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Surgeon General's Smoking Report. PD prevalence was estimated based on population aging with and without an account of the impact of declining smoking rates. Relative risks of 0.56 and 0.78 were applied for current and former smokers, respectively.

resultsAccounting for aging alone, ∼700,000 PD cases are predicted by 2040. After accounting for the declining smoking prevalence, ∼770,000 cases, an increase of ∼10% over the estimate without smoking, is predicted.

conclusionsIf the epidemiological association of smoking and PD is causal, projecting future cases without considering smoking may underestimate disease burden, underscoring the urgency of adequate resource allocation. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Indexed as

Age FactorsCensusesFemaleHumansMaleParkinson DiseasePopulation SurveillancePredictive Value of TestsPrevalenceSmokingUnited Statesagingchronic diseasehealth care burdenParkinson's projectionsmoking

Identifiers

PMID28590580
PMCPMC5720940

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.