ArticleThe American journal of gastroenterology2017
Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030.
Article in The American journal of gastroenterology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 252 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
252 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 489 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pathologic complete response in patients with esophageal cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Cancer medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Environmental and life-style risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- C-Reactive Protein and C-Reactive Protein-Based Scores to Predict Survival in Esophageal and Junctional Adenocarcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Annals of surgical oncology · 2022Pooled it
- Systematic review with meta-analysis: the effects of family history on the risk of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma.Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics · 2021Pooled it
- Surveillance vs Standard Surgery and Cost-Effectiveness After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal Cancer: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2026Trial
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- Randomized Phase II Study of PET Response-Adapted Combined Modality Therapy for Esophageal Cancer: Mature Results of the CALGB 80803 (Alliance) Trial.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2021Trial
- A prognostic model for stratification of stage IB/IIA esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective study.BMC gastroenterology · 2021Trial
- The tumor-microenvironment-associated prognostic gene TIGIT promotes malignant phenotypes in esophageal carcinoma.Translational oncology · 2026Article
- Global incidence of esophageal cancer by histological and anatomical subtypes.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Meat Intake and Risk of Gastric and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- A fermented milk drink containingiScience · 2026Article
- Clinical Machine Learning Model for Predicting Pathological Complete Response in Patients with Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma After Trimodality Therapy.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Comparative Analysis of Potential Clinical Actionability of Genomic Alterations in Early-Onset Versus Later-Onset GI Cancers.JCO precision oncology · 2026Article
- The Impact of Lung and Heart Radiation Dose During Preoperative Chemoradiation on Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer-A Post Hoc Analysis of CALGB 80803 (Alliance).International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics · 2026Article
- Epigenetic biomarkers and the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review protocol.Systematic reviews · 2026Article
- Risk Factors for Mediastinal Lymph-Node Metastasis in Siewert Type I/II Esophagogastric Junction Cancers.Cancers · 2026Article
- Years of Life Lost of Patients With Early Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction Compared to Esophageal or Gastric Adenocarcinoma. A Registry-Based Study.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Article
192 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesRapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data.
methodsData on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined.
resultsThe number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime.
conclusionsThe burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.