ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2017
Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 74 citations in OpenAlex.
- Paving the way for human vaccination against Rift Valley fever virus: A systematic literature review of RVFV epidemiology from 1999 to 2021.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.Globalization and health · 2019Pooled it
- Systematic literature review of Rift Valley fever virus seroprevalence in livestock, wildlife and humans in Africa from 1968 to 2016.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Pooled it
- Early outbreak detection in endemic settings using a novel method applied to sparse Rift Valley fever incidence data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Organisation of Wildlife Passive Disease Surveillance in Slovenia over 30 Years (1995-2025) and Insights into Certain Causes of Disease or Mortality.Veterinary sciences · 2026Article
- Seasonal variation in mosquito abundance and environmental predictors in semi-pastoral southern Kenya: implications for endemic Rift Valley fever.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Incidence rate of Rift Valley fever exposure in humans and livestock from a longitudinal study in Northern Kenya.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Technical validation of a multiplex real-time PCR for combined detection of Rift Valley fever, chikungunya, Zika and dengue viruses.Journal of virological methods · 2025Article
- Rift Valley fever virus and Coxiella burnetii infections among febrile patients, Eastern Ethiopia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- El Niño and La Niña differentially drive transmission dynamics of the small ruminant parasite Haemonchus contortus across agroecological zones in Southern Africa.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatial and temporal analysis of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in livestock in Uganda: a retrospective study from 2013 to 2022.BMC veterinary research · 2025Article
- Integrating forest data and health facility surveys to optimise risk-based malaria surveillance in the Philippines.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Identification of common spatial and temporal trends in the epidemiology of cattle bovine tuberculosis and human extrapulmonary and drug-resistant tuberculosis in Malawi.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in Anthrax outbreaks and El Niño in Karnataka, India.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987-2016).Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Rift Valley Fever outbreaks in the East African Community: insights from ProMed data (2010-2024).Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Building a pathway to One Health surveillance and response in Asian countries.Science in One Health · 2024Review
- Ecological and subject-level drivers of interepidemic Rift Valley fever virus exposure in humans and livestock in Northern Kenya.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Biodiversity data supports research on human infectious diseases: Global trends, challenges, and opportunities.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Review
- Geostatistical Modeling and Prediction of Rift Valley Fever Seroprevalence among Livestock in Uganda.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.