ArticleJournal of the economics of ageing2016
Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.
Article in Journal of the economics of ageing, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The effects of dance interventions on reducing the risk of falls in older adults: a network meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
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- Productivity-adjusted life year loss among the late middle-aged adults in China.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Health Risk and the Value of Life.Journal of public economics · 2025Article
- The urban-rural gap in older Americans' healthy life expectancy.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2025Article
- Initial outcomes and surgical techniques of prostatic urethral lift for benign prostatic hyperplasia in Japan.International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association · 2024Article
- Projections of functional dependence among the late middle-aged and older population from 2018-2048 in China: a dynamic microsimulation.Global health research and policy · 2024Article
- Article
- Putative Bidirectionality of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Periodontal Disease: A Review of the Literature.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Review
- Association between equol producers and type 2 diabetes mellitus among Japanese older adults.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2023Article
- Gridded Datasets for Japan: Total, Male, and Female Populations from 2001-2020.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Investigation and influencing factors of the behavioral intention of nurses voluntarily participating in the care of older adults with disabilities.International journal of nursing sciences · 2023Article
- Are older people worse off in 2040 regarding health and resources to deal with it? - Future developments in complex health problems and in the availability of resources to manage health problems in the Netherlands.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression.Age and ageing · 2022Article
- Projecting prevalence of frailty and dementia and the economic cost of care in Japan from 2016 to 2043: a microsimulation modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2022Article
- Projecting future health and service use among older people in Ireland: an overview of a dynamic microsimulation model in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).HRB open research · 2022Article
- Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-sectional data.Health economics · 2021Article
- Efficacy and safety of holmium laser enucleation of the prostate for elderly patients: surgical outcomes and King's Health Questionnaire.Translational andrology and urology · 2021Article
- Simulating the Impact of Long-Term Care Prevention Among Older Japanese People on Healthcare Costs From 2020 to 2040 Using System Dynamics Modeling.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.
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