ArticlePloS one2017
Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan.
Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 43 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Understanding the Effect of a Changing Climate on the Re-Emergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Vulnerable Small Island Nations: A Systematic Review.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Climate variability and dengue incidence in southern Ecuador: an ecological analysis in two contrasting climatic settings (2019-2024).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- AI-based prediction of dengue incidence using climatic, environmental, and socio-demographic factors: an ensemble random forest approach with agile system development.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Scarlet fever and meteorological exposures in Jiangsu, China: a time-stratified case-crossover study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- The Correlation Between Three Teleconnections and Dengue Incidence in the Western Province of Sri Lanka, 2005-2019.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Unraveling varying spatiotemporal patterns of Dengue Fever and associated exposure-response relationships with environmental variables in three Southeast Asian countries before and during COVID-19.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Spatial Distribution Analysis and Comparative Forecasting of Dengue Resurgence in the Philippines (2025-2027): A Nationwide Study.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of emergency measures in varied population density areas during a large dengue outbreak.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Improving dengue fever predictions in Taiwan based on feature selection and random forests.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Dengue in Cebu City, Philippines: A Pilot Study of Predictive Models and Visualizations for Public Health.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Spatial model of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) risk: scoping review.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections.Science advances · 2023Article
- An Integrative Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach to Analyze Fine-Scale Land-Cover and Land-Use Factors Associated with Spatial Distributions of Place of Residence of Reported Dengue Cases.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño Southern Oscillations on dengue-like-illness incidence in Solomon Islands.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Clinical features and transmission risk analysis of dengue virus infections in Shenzhen, During 2014-2019.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2023Article
- Assessing dengue fever risk in Costa Rica by using climate variables and machine learning techniques.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSouthern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE
findingsHistorical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks.
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