ArticleScientific reports2017
Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa.
Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 77 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review investigating emerging trends between Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) and infectious disease outbreaks in South Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2026Pooled it
- Malaria, relationship with climatic variables and deforestation in Colombia, Latin America and the Caribbean from 2000 to 2020: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2024Pooled it
- Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.Globalization and health · 2019Pooled it
- Malaria Prevalence Near African Mangroves: Negative Association With Mangrove Extent, but Positive Association With Mangrove Greenness.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Malaria at the margins: climatic extremes, migration, and urban informal settlement risk in South Africa.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Forecasting malaria incidence in a resource-limited urban setting with climate variables as exogenous regressors: time series analysis using a SARIMAX model in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Extreme weather events and vector-borne diseases: Quantifying the epidemiological effect of Hurricane Julia on malaria transmission in Colombia.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Modelling an Optimal Climate-Driven Malaria Transmission Control Strategy to Optimise the Management of Malaria in Mberengwa District, Zimbabwe: A Multi-Method Study Protocol.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Validating a Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Model to Predict La Crosse Virus Human Incidence in the Appalachian Mountain Region, USA.Microorganisms · 2025Article
- Associations of temperature and precipitation with malaria in children under 5: A multi-country study in Sub-Saharan Africa.PloS one · 2025Article
- Host Preferences and Impact of Climate on Blood Feeding inTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Article
- Space-time clusters and co-occurrence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in West Bengal, India.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Geo-epidemiology of malaria incidence in the Vhembe District to guide targeted elimination strategies, South-Africa, 2015-2018: a local resurgence.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub-Saharan Africa.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016-2018: a spatial temporal analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Climate Change and Health in Urban Areas with a Mediterranean Climate: A Conceptual Framework with a Social and Climate Justice Approach.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Quantifying the effect of human population mobility on malaria risk in the Peruvian Amazon.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Predicting malaria outbreaks from sea surface temperature variability up to 9 months ahead in Limpopo, South Africa, using machine learning.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Spatial Modelling of Malaria in South of Iran in Line with the Implementation of the Malaria Elimination Program: A Bayesian Poisson-Gamma Random Field Model.Journal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Niña and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread.
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