ArticleParasites & vectors2017
Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Infectious disease forecasting to support public health: use of readily available methods to predict malaria and diarrhoeal diseases in Mozambique.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Effect of seasonal variability on the increased malaria positivity rate in drought-prone malaria endemic areas of Ethiopia.Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology · 2024Article
- The association between infrastructure damage in the aftermath of Cyclone Idai and malaria risk in Sofala Province, Mozambique: an ecological study.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Exploring malaria prediction models in Togo: a time series forecasting by health district and target group.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016-2018: a spatial temporal analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Spatio-Temporal Variability of Malaria Incidence in the Health District of Kati, Mali, 2015-2019.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Temporal Monitoring and Predicting of the Abundance of Malaria Vectors Using Time Series Analysis of Remote Sensing Data through Google Earth Engine.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Modelling sociodemographic factors that affect malaria prevalence in Sussundenga, Mozambique: a cross-sectional study.F1000Research · 2022Article
- Article
- Malaria Temporal Variation and Modelling Using Time-Series in Sussundenga District, Mozambique.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Mapping Risk of Malaria as a Function of Anthropic and Environmental Conditions in Sussundenga Village, Mozambique.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- When it rains, it pours: detecting seasonal patterns in utilization of maternal healthcare in Mozambique using routine data.BMC health services research · 2020Article
- Investigating climate suitability conditions for malaria transmission and impacts of climate variability on mosquito survival in the humid tropical region: a case study of Obafemi Awolowo University Campus, Ile-Ife, south-western Nigeria.International journal of biometeorology · 2020Article
- Mapping and Modelling Malaria Risk Areas Using Climate, Socio-Demographic and Clinical Variables in Chimoio, Mozambique.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication.
methodsTime series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model.
resultsBetween 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1)
conclusionThe Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the prediction of malaria cases, this can be used for designing public precision health measures. The model can be used for planning specific measures for Chimoio municipality. Prospective and multidisciplinary research involving researchers from different fields is welcomed to improve the effect of climatic factors and other factors in malaria cases.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.