ArticlePloS one2017
Modelling the transmission and control strategies of varicella among school children in Shenzhen, China.
Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Impact and Effectiveness of a Two-Dose Varicella Immunization Program Among School Children: Evidence from Quasi-experimental Analyses.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2026Article
- Analysis and comparison of chickenpox outbreaks in two schools at different educational stages: a mixed retrospective observational study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Synthetic population generation with public health characteristics for spatial agent-based models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Model-inferred timing and infectious period of the chickenpox outbreak source.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- One single-center cross-sectional investigation on varicella antibody level of all age groups in Chinese people.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- Risk perception and behavioral change during epidemics: Comparing models of individual and collective learning.PloS one · 2020Article
- Deadly outbreak of chickenpox at district Faisalabad, Pakistan: possible causes, and preventive way forward.Molecular biology reports · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesVaricella (chickenpox) is a highly transmissible childhood disease. Between 2010 and 2015, it displayed two epidemic waves annually among school populations in Shenzhen, China. However, their transmission dynamics remain unclear and there is no school-based vaccination programme in Shenzhen to-date. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to compare a school-based vaccination intervention scenario with a baseline (i.e. no intervention) scenario.
methodsData on varicella reported cases were downloaded from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System. We obtained the population size, age structure of children aged 15 or under, the class and school distribution from Shenzhen Education Bureau. We developed an Agent-Based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (ABM-SEIR) Model that considered within-class, class-to-class and out-of-school transmission modes. The intervention scenario was that school-wide vaccination intervention occurred when an outbreak threshold was reached within a school. We varied this threshold level from five to ten cases. We compared the reduction of disease outbreak size and estimated the key epidemiological parameters under the intervention strategy.
resultsOur ABM-SEIR model provided a good model fit to the two annual varicella epidemic waves from 2013 to 2015. The transmission dynamics displayed strong seasonality. Our results suggested that a school-based vaccination strategy could effectively prevent large outbreaks at different thresholds.
conclusionsThere was a considerable increase in reported varicella cases from 2013 to 2015 in Shenzhen. Our modelling study provided important theoretical support for disease control decision making during school outbreaks and the development of a school-based vaccination programme.
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