Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28514961›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2017

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

S N Etkind, A E Bone, B Gomes, N Lovell, C J Evans, I J Higginson, F E M Murtagh

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In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 329 papers, 17 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
329citing papers in PubMed, 17 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

329 citing papers in PubMed, 17 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  3. A systematic review of the assessment model for palliative care needs in cancer patients.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026
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269 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

S N EtkindKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK. simon.etkind@kcl.ac.uk.
A E BoneKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK.
B GomesKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK.
N LovellKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK.
C J EvansKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK.
I J HigginsonKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK.
F E M MurtaghKing's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCurrent estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries.

methodsWe used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure.

resultsBy 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need.

conclusionsIf recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolChronic DiseaseDelivery of Health CareDementiaEnglandFemaleForecastingHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleChronic diseaseComorbidityForecastingHealth services needs and demandMortalityNeeds assessmentPalliative care

Identifiers

PMID28514961
PMCPMC5436458

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.