Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28507323›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds.

Stephen J Mayor, Robert P Guralnick, Morgan W Tingley, Javier Otegui, John C Withey, Sarah C Elmendorf, Margaret E Andrew, Stefan Leyk, Ian S Pearse, David C Schneider

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
59citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

59 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Review
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  7. Article
  8. Lords of the flies: dipteran migrants are diverse, abundant and ecologically important.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Climate-related drivers of migratory bird health in the south-central USA.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Stephen J MayorDepartment of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada. sjmayor@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-9479-4221
Robert P GuralnickFlorida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
Morgan W TingleyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1477-2218
Javier OteguiDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8997-3559
John C WitheyDepartment of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, 33199, USA.
Sarah C ElmendorfThe National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA.
Margaret E AndrewSchool of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, 6150, Australia.
Stefan LeykDepartment of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA.
Ian S PearseIllinois Natural History Survey, Champaign, IL, 61820, USA.
David C SchneiderDepartment of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west-where green-up typically became later-birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.

Indexed as

Animal MigrationSeasonsAnimalsBirdsClimateEcosystemEnvironmentGeographyNorth America

Identifiers

PMID28507323
PMCPMC5432526

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.