Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28499828›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2017

Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa: a mathematical modelling study.

Aditya Sharma, Andrew Hill, Ekaterina Kurbatova, Martie van der Walt, Charlotte Kvasnovsky, Thelma E Tupasi, Janice C Caoili, Maria Tarcela Gler, Grigory V Volchenkov, Boris Y Kazennyy and 14 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 69 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
69citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
14.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

69 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 152 citations in OpenAlex.

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  18. [Basic Knowledge of Hygiene in Voluntary Disaster Control Using - German Red Cross in the Rhein-Erft District as an Example].Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany)) · 2023
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9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors at 11 institutions in 9 countries.

Aditya SharmaUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: asharma4@cdc.gov.
Andrew HillUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Ekaterina KurbatovaUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Martie van der WaltSouth Africa Medical Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa.
Charlotte KvasnovskyUniversity of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Thelma E TupasiTropical Disease Foundation, Manila, Philippines.
Janice C CaoiliTropical Disease Foundation, Manila, Philippines.
Maria Tarcela GlerTropical Disease Foundation, Manila, Philippines.
Grigory V VolchenkovVladimir Oblast Tuberculosis Dispensary, Vladimir, Russia.
Boris Y KazennyyOrel Oblast Tuberculosis Dispensary, Orel, Russia.
Olga V DemikhovaCentral Tuberculosis Research Institute, Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Jaime BayonaSocios en Salud Sucursal, Lima, Peru.
Carmen ContrerasSocios en Salud Sucursal, Lima, Peru.
Martin YaguiNational Institute of Health, Lima, Peru.
Vaira LeimaneRiga East University Hospital Centre of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases, Latvia.
Sang Nae ChoInternational Tuberculosis Research Center, Changwon and Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Hee Jin KimKorean Institute of Tuberculosis, Seoul, South Korea.
Kai KliimanTartu University Hospital, Tartu, Estonia.
Somsak AkksilpMinistry of Public Health, Bangkok, Thailand.
Ruwen JouTaiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan.
Julia ErshovaUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Tracy DaltonUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Peter CegielskiUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Global Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study Investigators
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention · USTropical Disease Foundation · PHEsSALUD · PECentral Scientific Research Institute of Tuberculosis Russian Academy of Medical Sciences · RUInternational Tuberculosis Research Center · KRMinistry of Public Health · THNational Institute of Quality · PERiga East University Hospital · LVSouth African Medical Research Council · ZATartu University Hospital · EEUniversity of Maryland Medical Center · US

Funding

Intramural CDC HHS CC999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMultidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa.

methodsWe calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa.

findingsThe model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4-16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5-11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0-35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0-7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1-12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0-14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8-14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5-14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000-40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040.

interpretationMDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis.

fundingUS Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalAntitubercular AgentsAsiaExtensively Drug-Resistant TuberculosisHumansMycobacterium tuberculosisRisk FactorsRussiaSouth AfricaAntitubercular Agents

Identifiers

PMID28499828
PMCPMC5599934
OpenAlexW2613012061

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.