ArticleDemography2017
The German East-West Mortality Difference: Two Crossovers Driven by Smoking.
Article in Demography, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2019Pooled it
- Generational variation and life‑course accumulation of social inequalities in all-cause mortality in Germany: a cohort-sequential study.International journal for equity in health · 2026Article
- Survival assessment and pre-diagnostic risk factors for lung cancer incidence: Insights from the Golestan Cohort Study.PloS one · 2025Article
- [Mortality trends in Germany in an international context].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2024Article
- Article
- The underwhelming German life expectancy.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Different health systems - Different mortality outcomes? Regional disparities in avoidable mortality across German-speaking Europe, 1992-2019.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2023Article
- Quantifying the contribution of smoking to regional mortality disparities in Germany: a cross-sectional study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- The progression of the tobacco epidemic in India on the national and regional level, 1998-2016.BMC public health · 2022Article
- [30 years of German unification: achievements and remaining differences in mortality trends by age and cause of death].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2021Article
- Declining regional disparities in mortality in the context of persisting large inequalities in economic conditions: the case of Germany.International journal of epidemiology · 2020Article
- Socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy gains among retired German men, 1997-2016.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2019Article
- Avoidable Mortality in the German Baltic Sea Region Since Reunification: Convergence or Persistent Disparities?European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2019Article
- Developments in life expectancy in Germany. Current trends.Journal of health monitoring · 2019Article
- Avoidable Cancer Mortality in Germany Since Reunification: Regional Variation and Sex Differences.Frontiers in public health · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50-69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differences and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Mortality forecasting methods that do not account for smoking would, perhaps misleadingly, forecast a growing mortality advantage for East German women. Experience from other countries shows that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming an example warning of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms.
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