ArticleFrontiers in physiology2017
Waning Immunity Is Associated with Periodic Large Outbreaks of Mumps: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Scottish Data.
Article in Frontiers in physiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiological trends and determinants of mumps outbreaks: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Pooled it
- A heterogeneous continuous age-structured model of mumps with vaccine.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and interrupted time series analysis of mumps in Quzhou City, 2005-2023.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- The impact of temperature, humidity and closing school on the mumps epidemic: a case study in the mainland of China.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Mumps-specific antibody persistence in children aged 3-7 years immunized with two doses of mumps-containing vaccines: A prospective cohort study in Jiangsu Province, China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Article
- Effects of boosting and waning in highly exposed populations on dengue epidemic dynamics.Science translational medicine · 2023Article
- Endemic oscillations for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-A SIRS model analysis.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of mumps at township level in Wuhan, China, 2005-2019.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Effectiveness of an outbreak dose of mumps-containing vaccine in two First Nations communities in Northern Ontario, Canada.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Mumps serological surveillance following 10 years of a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine policy in Fujian Province, China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Modeling pandemic to endemic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using parameters estimated from animal model data.PNAS nexus · 2022Article
- Unpacking the Implications of SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections on COVID-19 Vaccination Programs.Vaccines · 2022Article
- The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Article
- Prevalence of Hepatitis B Vaccination Coverage and Serologic Evidence of Immunity Among US-Born Children and Adolescents From 1999 to 2016.JAMA network open · 2020Article
- Recurrent outbreaks of mumps in Lothian and the impact of waning immunity.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Seroprevalence and durability of rubella virus antibodies in a highly immunized population.Vaccine · 2019Article
- Seroprevalence and Determinants Associated with Mumps Antibodies after 20 Years of MMR Vaccination in Urban Area of Shanghai, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Application of a mixture model to assess the effect of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine on the mumps epidemic in children from kindergarten to early school age in Jiangsu Province, China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005, and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) vaccine more than 20 years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modeling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004-2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004-2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake.
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