ArticleNature communications2017
A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.
Article in Nature communications, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed.
- Murbeckiella is dead, long live Oreophyton: origin and systematics of tribe Oreophytoneae (Brassicaceae).Annals of botany · 2026Article
- Leveraging Genetic Diversity for Abiotic Stress Tolerance.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Article
- Conservation should assume realistic adaptive capacities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- It's time to go-Drivers and plasticity of migration phenology in a short-distance migratory ungulate.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Complex Responses to Climate Warming of Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations From Different Geographic Provenance.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Evolutionary adaptation under climate change:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The concept of critical age group for density dependence: bridging the gap between demographers, evolutionary biologists and behavioural ecologists.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Xanthium strumarium L., an invasive species in the subtropics: prediction of potential distribution areas and climate adaptability in Pakistan.BMC ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Evolutionary adaptation under climate change:bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest-predator system.Evolutionary applications · 2024Article
- Planting long-lived trees in a warming climate: Theory shows the importance of stage-dependent climatic tolerance.Evolutionary applications · 2024Article
- Insight into the phylogeny and responses of species from the genus Sergia (Campanulaceae) to the climate changes predicted for the Mountains of Central Asia (a world biodiversity hotspot).BMC plant biology · 2024Article
- Demographic feedbacks during evolutionary rescue can slow or speed adaptive evolution.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Adaptive potential of maritime pine under contrasting environments.BMC plant biology · 2024Article
- Forecasting effects of climate changes on the population genetic structure of Anacardium occidentale in the Cerrado biome, Brazil.Genetica · 2023Article
- Evolutionary dynamics of Euphorbia carniolica suggest a complex Plio-Pleistocene history of understorey species of deciduous forest in southeastern Europe.Molecular ecology · 2023Article
- Thermophilisation of communities differs between land plant lineages, land use types and elevation.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Monitoring Genetic Erosion of Aromatic and Medicinal Plant Species in Alentejo (South Portugal).Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.Nature ecology & evolution · 2023Article
- Post-glacial range formation of temperate forest understorey herbs - Insights from a spatio-temporally explicit modelling approach.Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.
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