ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2017
Changing Dynamics of HIV Transmission in Côte d'Ivoire: Modeling Who Acquired and Transmitted Infections and Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions (1976-2015).
Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 55 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- HIV incidence among women engaging in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Pooled it
- Population sizes, HIV prevalence, and HIV prevention among men who paid for sex in sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2020): A meta-analysis of 87 population-based surveys.PLoS medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Gender-responsive infectious disease models: Guidelines and systematic scoping review.Dialogues in health · 2026Review
- Identifying priority populations for HIV interventions using acquisition and transmission indicators: a combined analysis of 15 mathematical models from ten African countries.The lancet. HIV · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of community-led HIV self-testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- HIV incidence among women engaging in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Meeting the reproductive health needs of female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: protecting the human right to dignified health.Reproductive health · 2023Article
- HIV prevention in Africa: is VMMC useful and acceptable?International journal of impotence research · 2023Article
- Article
- Sexual behaviour changes and HIV infection among men who have sex with men: evidence from an open cohort in China.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Past dynamics of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Montréal, Canada: a mathematical modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Overlapping Key Populations and HIV Transmission in Tijuana, Mexico: A Modelling Analysis of Epidemic Drivers.AIDS and behavior · 2021Article
- Estimating the epidemic consequences of HIV prevention gaps among key populations.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Reductions in HIV incidence are likely to increase the importance of key population programmes for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Describing, analysing and understanding the effects of the introduction of HIV self-testing in West Africa through the ATLAS programme in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Estimating the contribution of key populations towards HIV transmission in South Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 7 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionUnderstanding the impact of past interventions and how it affected transmission dynamics is key to guiding prevention efforts. We estimated the population-level impact of condom, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and prevention of mother-to-child transmission activities on HIV transmission and the contribution of key risk factors on HIV acquisition and transmission.
methodsAn age-stratified dynamical model of sexual and vertical HIV transmission among the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men was calibrated to detailed prevalence and intervention data. We estimated the fraction of HIV infections averted by the interventions, and the fraction of incident infections acquired and transmitted by different populations over successive 10-year periods (1976-2015).
resultsOverall, condom use averted 61% (95% credible intervals: 56%-66%) of all adult infections during 1987-2015 mainly because of increased use by FSW (46% of infections averted). In comparison, ART prevented 15% (10%-19%) of adult infections during 2010-2015. As a result, FSW initially (1976-1985) contributed 95% (91%-97%) of all new infections, declining to 19% (11%-27%) during 2005-2015. Older men and clients mixing with non-FSW are currently the highest contributors to transmission. Men who have sex with men contributed ≤4% transmissions throughout. Young women (15-24 years; excluding FSW) do not transmit more infections than they acquired.
conclusionsEarly increases in condom use, mainly by FSW, have substantially reduced HIV transmission. Clients of FSWs and older men have become the main source of transmission, whereas young women remain at increased risk. Strengthening prevention and scaling-up of ART, particularly to FSW and clients of female sex workers, is important.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.