Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28461474›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2017

Retrospective analysis of natural products provides insights for future discovery trends.

Cameron R Pye, Matthew J Bertin, R Scott Lokey, William H Gerwick, Roger G Linington

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 227 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
227citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

227 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Biosynthetic origin of anticancer dolastatin 15 reveals a noncanonical NRPS architecture enabling 2-keto acid activation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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  18. Marine natural products.Natural product reports · 2026
    Review
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167 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Cameron R PyeDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064.
Matthew J BertinCenter for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093.
R Scott LokeyDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064.
William H GerwickCenter for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093; wgerwick@ucsd.edu rliningt@sfu.ca.
Roger G LiningtonDepartment of Chemistry, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6 wgerwick@ucsd.edu rliningt@sfu.ca.ORCID 0000-0003-1818-4971

Funding

Urgent Covid-19 Revision to the Center for High-Throughput Functional Annotation of Natural ProductsU41AT008718 · NCCIH · UT SOUTHWESTERN MEDICAL CENTER · PI CECH, NADJA B, LININGTON, ROGER G · 2015 to 2024
$10.1M
Unified Computation Tools for Natural Products ResearchR01GM107550 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI COTTRELL, GARRISON W, GERWICK, WILLIAM HENRY · 2013 to 2025
$8.2M
NCCIH NIH HHS U41 AT008718NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM107550
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding of the capacity of the natural world to produce secondary metabolites is important to a broad range of fields, including drug discovery, ecology, biosynthesis, and chemical biology, among others. Both the absolute number and the rate of discovery of natural products have increased significantly in recent years. However, there is a perception and concern that the fundamental novelty of these discoveries is decreasing relative to previously known natural products. This study presents a quantitative examination of the field from the perspective of both number of compounds and compound novelty using a dataset of all published microbial and marine-derived natural products. This analysis aimed to explore a number of key questions, such as how the rate of discovery of new natural products has changed over the past decades, how the average natural product structural novelty has changed as a function of time, whether exploring novel taxonomic space affords an advantage in terms of novel compound discovery, and whether it is possible to estimate how close we are to having described all of the chemical space covered by natural products. Our analyses demonstrate that most natural products being published today bear structural similarity to previously published compounds, and that the range of scaffolds readily accessible from nature is limited. However, the analysis also shows that the field continues to discover appreciable numbers of natural products with no structural precedent. Together, these results suggest that the development of innovative discovery methods will continue to yield compounds with unique structural and biological properties.

Indexed as

Anti-Bacterial AgentsBiological ProductsDrug DiscoveryHumansRetrospective StudiesAnti-Bacterial AgentsBiological Productschemical diversitychemoinformaticsdrug discoverynatural productsstructural similarity

Identifiers

PMID28461474
PMCPMC5465889

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.