Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28461358›Full record

ArticleHealth affairs (Project Hope)2017

Modeling The Economic And Health Impact Of Increasing Children's Physical Activity In The United States.

Bruce Y Lee, Atif Adam, Eli Zenkov, Daniel Hertenstein, Marie C Ferguson, Peggy I Wang, Michelle S Wong, Patrick Wedlock, Sindiso Nyathi, Joel Gittelsohn and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Health affairs (Project Hope), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Bruce Y LeeBruce Y. Lee (brucelee@jhu.edu) is executive director of the Global Obesity Prevention Center and an associate professor in the Department of International Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, in Baltimore, Maryland.
Atif AdamAtif Adam is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Eli ZenkovEli Zenkov is a programmer analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a public health applications developer at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center at Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Daniel HertensteinDaniel Hertenstein is a senior programmer analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Marie C FergusonMarie C. Ferguson is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a research associate in the Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Peggy I WangPeggy I. Wang is a senior research program coordinator at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Michelle S WongMichelle S. Wong is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Patrick WedlockPatrick Wedlock is a systems modeler at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Sindiso NyathiSindiso Nyathi is a systems modeler at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Joel GittelsohnJoel Gittelsohn is director of community interventions at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a professor in the Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Saeideh Falah-FiniSaeideh Falah-Fini is an assistant professor in the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering at the California State Polytechnic University, in Pomona, and a collaborator at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
Sarah M BartschSarah M. Bartsch is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a research associate in the Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Lawrence J CheskinLawrence J. Cheskin is director of clinical research at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and associate professor in the Department of Health, Behavior, and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Shawn T BrownShawn T. Brown is director of computational research at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and director of public health applications at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center at Carnegie Mellon.

Funding

MULTILEVEL SYSTEMS-ORIENTED CHILDHOOD OBESITY STUDY IN CHINAU54HD070725 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WANG, YOUFA · 2011 to 2016
$15.9M
Virtual Population Obesity Prevention (VPOP) Labs: Computational, Multi-Scale Models for Obesity SolutionsU01HD086861 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2015 to 2019
$2.8M
Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst for Healthcare Associated InfectionsR01HS023317 · AHRQ · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2014 to 2014
$2.4M
AHRQ HHS R01 HS023317NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD08601301NICHD NIH HHS U01 HD086861NICHD NIH HHS U54 HD070725
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Increasing physical activity among children is a potentially important public health intervention. Quantifying the economic and health effects of the intervention would help decision makers understand its impact and priority. Using a computational simulation model that we developed to represent all US children ages 8-11 years, we estimated that maintaining the current physical activity levels (only 31.9 percent of children get twenty-five minutes of high-calorie-burning physical activity three times a week) would result each year in a net present value of $1.1 trillion in direct medical costs and $1.7 trillion in lost productivity over the course of their lifetimes. If 50 percent of children would exercise, the number of obese and overweight youth would decrease by 4.18 percent, averting $8.1 billion in direct medical costs and $13.8 billion in lost productivity. Increasing the proportion of children who exercised to 75 percent would avert $16.6 billion and $23.6 billion, respectively.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessChildEfficiencyExerciseHealth Care CostsHumansModels, StatisticalPediatric ObesityChildren’s Healthhealthcare costsobesityphysical activity

Identifiers

PMID28461358
PMCPMC5563819

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.