Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28448488›Full record

ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2017

The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States.

Bruce Y Lee, Jorge A Alfaro-Murillo, Alyssa S Parpia, Lindsey Asti, Patrick T Wedlock, Peter J Hotez, Alison P Galvani

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  19. Point of care testing for infectious diseases.Clinica chimica acta; international journal of clinical chemistry · 2019
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Bruce Y LeePublic Health Computational and Operations Research (PHICOR) and Global Obesity Prevention Center (GOPC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0003-2633-8651
Jorge A Alfaro-MurilloCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Alyssa S ParpiaCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Lindsey AstiPublic Health Computational and Operations Research (PHICOR) and Global Obesity Prevention Center (GOPC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Patrick T WedlockPublic Health Computational and Operations Research (PHICOR) and Global Obesity Prevention Center (GOPC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Peter J HotezSabin Vaccine Institute and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
Alison P GalvaniCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.

Funding

MULTILEVEL SYSTEMS-ORIENTED CHILDHOOD OBESITY STUDY IN CHINAU54HD070725 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CURRIERO, FRANK · 2011 to 2016
$15.9M
Impacts of Individual and Social Behavior on Influenza Dynamics and ControlU01GM087719 · NIGMS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2009 to 2018
$6.3M
Virtual Population Obesity Prevention (VPOP) Labs: Computational, Multi-Scale Models for Obesity SolutionsU01HD086861 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2015 to 2019
$2.8M
Evaluating the social influences that impact vaccination decisionsU01GM105627 · NIGMS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P · 2013 to 2017
$1.6M
AHRQ HHS R01 HS023317NICHD NIH HHS U01 HD086861NICHD NIH HHS U54 HD070725NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM087719NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM105627
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAs the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE

findingsTo inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances. In order to accommodate a wide range of possibilities, different scenarios explored the effects of varying the attack rate from 0.01% to 10%. Across the six states, an attack rate of 0.01% is estimated to cost $183.4 million to society ($117.1 million in direct medical costs and $66.3 million in productivity losses), 0.025% would result in $198.6 million ($119.4 million and $79.2 million), 0.10% would result in $274.6 million ($130.8 million and $143.8 million) and 1% would result in $1.2 billion ($268.0 million and $919.2 million).

conclusionsOur model and study show how direct medical costs, Medicaid costs, productivity losses, and total costs to society may vary with different attack rates across the six states and the circumstances at which they may exceed certain thresholds (e.g., Zika prevention and control funding allocations that are being debated by the US government). A Zika attack rate of 0.3% across the six states at greatest risk of Zika infection, would result in total costs that exceed $0.5 billion, an attack rate of 1% would exceed $1 billion, and an attack rate of 2% would exceed $2 billion.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessHealth Care CostsComputer SimulationFemaleHumansPregnancyUnited StatesZika Virus Infection

Identifiers

PMID28448488
PMCPMC5407573

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.