ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2017
Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 164 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
164 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Understanding the Effect of a Changing Climate on the Re-Emergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Vulnerable Small Island Nations: A Systematic Review.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Natural vertical transmission of dengue virus in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus: a systematic review.Parasites & vectors · 2018Pooled it
- Microcephaly Prevalence in Infants Born to Zika Virus-Infected Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of molecular sciences · 2017Pooled it
- Arbovirus co-circulation and epidemiological convergence in a changing climate: challenges for surveillance, diagnosis and public health preparedness.Brazilian journal of microbiology : [publication of the Brazilian Society for Microbiology] · 2026Review
- How host mobility formulations shape estimates of pathogen dispersal and epidemic risk in non endemic regions.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- An integrated framework for early detection and transmissibility assessment of emerging variants in wastewater.International journal of hygiene and environmental health · 2026Article
- Academic and social-behavioral assessment in a prospective cohort of normocephalic school-aged children with antenatal Zika virus exposure.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025Article
- Inside-out: modelling the link between Zika virus viral dynamics within hosts and transmission to vectors across host species and virus strains.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Zika in Infants and Pregnancy (ZIP) study: results from a prospective international cohort study of prenatal Zika virus infection and adverse fetal and infant outcomes.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Observational
- Arbovirus Prevalence and Vulnerability Assessment Through Entomological Surveillance in Ponce, Puerto Rico.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Estimating transmissibility of Zika virus in Colombia in the presence of surveillance bias.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Comprehensive intra-host infection kinetics reveals high arbo-orthoflavivirus transmission potential by neglected vector species, Aedes scutellaris.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Modelling COVID-19 in the North American region with a metapopulation network and Kalman filter.Epidemics · 2025Article
- Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Seroprevalence of Zika virus and dengue virus infections in migrants in Italy.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
104 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.