ArticlePLoS currents2017
Spatial Determinants of Ebola Virus Disease Risk for the West African Epidemic.
Article in PLoS currents, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Incidence and predictors of Sudan ebolavirus transmission among contacts in Uganda in 2022: a retrospective cohort study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19.World development · 2021Article
- Travel time to health facilities in areas of outbreak potential: maps for guiding local preparedness and response.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Precision Global Health - The case of Ebola: a scoping review.Journal of global health · 2019Article
- Environmental temperature and case fatality of patients with Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone and Liberia, 2014-2015: a retrospective cohort study.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2019Article
- Towards a genomics-informed, real-time, global pathogen surveillance system.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2018Review
- An Exploration of the Spatiotemporal and Demographic Patterns of Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in West Africa Using Open Access Data Sources.Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England) · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionAlthough many studies have investigated the probability of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks while other studies have simulated the size and speed of EVD outbreaks, few have investigated the environmental and population-level predictors of Ebola transmission once an outbreak is underway. Identifying strong predictors of transmission could help guide and target limited public health resources during an EVD outbreak. We examined several environmental and population-level demographic predictors of EVD risk from the West African epidemic.
methodsWe obtained district-level estimates from the World Health Organization EVD case data, demographic indicators obtained from the Demographic and Health surveys, and satellite-derived temperature, rainfall, and land cover estimates. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to estimate EVD risk and to evaluate the spatial variability explained by the selected predictors.
resultsWe found that districts had greater risk of EVD with increasing proportion of households not possessing a radio (RR 2.79, 0.90-8.78; RR 4.23, 1.16-15.93), increasing rainfall (RR 2.18; 0.66-7.20; 5.34, 1.20-23.90), and urban land cover (RR 4.87, 1.56-15.40; RR 5.74, 1.68-19.67). DISCUSSION: The finding of radio ownership and reduced EVD transmission risk suggests that the use of radio messaging for control and prevention purposes may have been crucial in reducing the EVD transmission risk in certain districts, although this association requires further study. Future research should examine the etiologic relationships between the identified risk factors and human-to-human transmission of EVD with a focus on factors related to population mobility and healthcare accessibility, which are critical features of epidemic propagation and control.
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