Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28438733›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2017

Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Julian Wolfson, David M Vock, Sunayan Bandyopadhyay, Thomas Kottke, Gabriela Vazquez-Benitez, Paul Johnson, Gediminas Adomavicius, Patrick J O'Connor

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT01420016 (Prioritized Clinical Decision Support), which is not on this map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT01420016 nacompletednot on this map

Prioritized Clinical Decision Support (CDS) to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk

TypeinterventionalSponsorHealthPartners InstituteRan2012 to 2014Enrolled7,914ConditionsHypertension, Hyperlipidemia, Diabetes, SmokingArmsPrioritized Clinical Decision Support
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Digital phenotyping and ASCVD risk: An exploratory cross-sectional analysis using online behavioral data.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Julian WolfsonDivision of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN julianw@umn.edu.
David M VockDivision of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN.
Sunayan BandyopadhyayCA Technologies, San Diego, CA.
Thomas KottkeHealthPartners Institute for Education, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN.
Gabriela Vazquez-BenitezHealthPartners Institute for Education, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN.
Paul JohnsonDepartment of Information and Decision Sciences, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN.
Gediminas AdomaviciusDepartment of Information and Decision Sciences, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN.
Patrick J O'ConnorHealthPartners Center for Chronic Care Innovation and HealthPartners Institute for Education and Research, Minneapolis, MN.

Funding

Translational Research Core - Health Engagement & Action Translational (HEAT)P30DK092924 · NIDDK · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI Alyce Sophia Adams, HILARY Kessler SELIGMAN · 2011 to 2026
$9.2M
NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK092924
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundClinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? METHODS AND

resultsData were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination.

conclusionsWe conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates.

Indexed as

Electronic Health RecordsRisk AssessmentAcute Coronary SyndromeAdultAgedCardiovascular DiseasesCoronary DiseaseFemaleHeart FailureHumansMaleMiddle AgedMyocardial InfarctionPeripheral Arterial DiseaseStrokeelectronic health record datarisk predictionrisk score

Identifiers

PMID28438733
PMCPMC5532984

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.