Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28436602›Full record

Observational studyThe British journal of surgery2017

Accuracy of circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

T Liu, W Huang, P Szatmary, S T Abrams, Y Alhamdi, Z Lin, W Greenhalf, G Wang, R Sutton, C H Toh

Open access · hybridAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in The British journal of surgery, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
46citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
7.9field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

46 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

T LiuInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
W HuangNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Liverpool Pancreas Biomedical Research Unit, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
P SzatmaryNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Liverpool Pancreas Biomedical Research Unit, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
S T AbramsInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Y AlhamdiInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Z LinInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
W GreenhalfNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Liverpool Pancreas Biomedical Research Unit, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
G WangInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
R SuttonNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Liverpool Pancreas Biomedical Research Unit, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
C H TohInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
University of Liverpool · GBRoyal Liverpool University Hospital · GBNational Institute for Health Research · GBSichuan University · CN

Funding

British Heart Foundation PG/14/19/30751British Heart Foundation PG/16/65/32313Cancer Research UK 16812Department of Health II-FS-0110-14061Medical Research Council G0501641
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarly prediction of acute pancreatitis severity remains a challenge. Circulating levels of histones are raised early in mouse models and correlate with disease severity. It was hypothesized that circulating histones predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis.

methodsConsecutive patients with acute pancreatitis fulfilling inclusion criteria admitted to Royal Liverpool University Hospital were enrolled prospectively between June 2010 and March 2014. Blood samples were obtained within 48 h of abdominal pain onset and relevant clinical data during the hospital stay were collected. Healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. The primary endpoint was occurrence of persistent organ failure. The predictive values of circulating histones, clinical scores and other biomarkers were determined.

resultsAmong 236 patients with acute pancreatitis, there were 156 (66·1 per cent), 57 (24·2 per cent) and 23 (9·7 per cent) with mild, moderate and severe disease respectively, according to the revised Atlanta classification. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality was 0·92 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·99) and 0·96 (0·92 to 1·00) respectively; histones were at least as accurate as clinical scores or biochemical markers. For infected pancreatic necrosis and/or sepsis, the AUC was 0·78 (0·62 to 0·94). Histones did not predict or correlate with local pancreatic complications, but correlated negatively with leucocyte cell viability (r = -0·511, P = 0·001).

conclusionQuantitative assessment of circulating histones in plasma within 48 h of abdominal pain onset can predict persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Early death of immune cells may contribute to raised circulating histone levels in acute pancreatitis.

Indexed as

Acute DiseaseAdultAgedBiomarkersCase-Control StudiesEarly DiagnosisFemaleHistonesHumansMaleMiddle AgedMultiple Organ FailurePancreatitisProspective StudiesBiomarkersHistones

Identifiers

PMID28436602
PMCPMC7938821
OpenAlexW2609711457

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.