Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28436011›Full record

ArticleCancer2017

Is prostate cancer different in black men? Answers from 3 natural history models.

Alex Tsodikov, Roman Gulati, Tiago M de Carvalho, Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, Rachel A Hunter-Merrill, Angela B Mariotto, Harry J de Koning, Ruth Etzioni

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 84 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
84citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
8.6field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

84 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 132 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  15. Trends in young-onset cancer incidence: a modeling perspective.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025
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24 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Alex TsodikovDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Roman GulatiDivision of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7592-6567
Tiago M de CarvalhoDivision of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Eveline A M HeijnsdijkDivision of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Rachel A Hunter-MerrillDivision of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.
Angela B MariottoDivision of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland.
Harry J de KoningDivision of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Ruth EtzioniDivision of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.
Erasmus MC · NLFred Hutch Cancer Center · USNational Cancer Institute · USUniversity of Michigan · US

Funding

Modeling prostate cancer control: prevention, screening, treatment, followup careU01CA157224 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI DE KONING, HARRY J, ETZIONI, RUTH D · 2010 to 2014
$5.3M
Modeling to Improve Prostate Cancer Outcomes Across Diverse PopulationsU01CA199338 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI DE KONING, HARRY J, ETZIONI, RUTH D · 2015 to 2019
$5.2M
PCPT and SELECT cohorts: Core Infrastructure Support for Cancer Research UM1CA182883 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI TANGEN, CATHERINE M., THOMPSON, IAN M. · 2013 to 2017
$5.2M
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA157224NCI NIH HHS U01 CA199338NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA182883
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundBlack men in the United States have substantially higher prostate cancer incidence rates than the general population. The extent to which this incidence disparity is because prostate cancer is more prevalent, more aggressive, and/or more frequently diagnosed in black men is unknown.

methodsThe authors estimated 3 independently developed models of prostate cancer natural history in black men and in the general population using an updated reconstruction of prostate-specific antigen screening, based on the National Health Interview Survey in 2005 and on prostate cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program during 1975 through 2000. By using the estimated models, the natural history of prostate cancer was compared between black men and the general population.

resultsThe models projected that from 30% to 43% (range across models) of black men develop preclinical prostate cancer by age 85 years, a risk that is (relatively) 28% to 56% higher than that in the general population. Among men who had preclinical disease onset, black men had a similar risk of diagnosis (range, 35%-49%) compared with the general population (32%-44%), but their risk of progression to metastatic disease by the time of diagnosis was from 44% to 75% higher than that in the general population.

conclusionsProstate cancer incidence patterns implicate higher incidence of preclinical disease and higher risk of metastatic progression among black men. The findings suggest screening black men earlier than white men and support further research into the benefit-harm tradeoffs of more aggressive screening policies for black men. Cancer 2017;123:2312-2319. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Indexed as

Black or African AmericanComputer SimulationDisease ProgressionEarly Detection of CancerHumansKallikreinsMaleModels, StatisticalPrevalenceProstate-Specific AntigenProstatic NeoplasmsRiskSEER ProgramUnited StatesKallikreinsKLK3 protein, humanProstate-Specific Antigencancer epidemiologymass screeningnatural historyprostate-specific antigenprostatic neoplasmsracial disparitiesstatistical methods and models

Identifiers

PMID28436011
PMCPMC5459620
OpenAlexW2609553042

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.