Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28424900›Full record

ArticleJournal of neurology2017

Seasonal variation in multiple sclerosis relapse.

Katharine Harding, Kate Tilling, Claire MacIver, Mark Willis, Fady Joseph, Gillian Ingram, Claire Hirst, Mark Wardle, Trevor Pickersgill, Yoav Ben-Shlomo and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of neurology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Seasonal Changes in Serum Metabolites in Multiple Sclerosis Relapse.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Environmental and genetic risk factors for MS: an integrated review.Annals of clinical and translational neurology · 2019
    Review
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Katharine HardingInstitute of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neuroscience, Cardiff University, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Kate TillingSchool of Social and Community Medicine, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK.
Claire MacIverInstitute of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neuroscience, Cardiff University, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Mark WillisInstitute of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neuroscience, Cardiff University, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Fady JosephDepartment of Neurology, Royal Gwent Hospital, Cardiff Road, Newport, NP20 2UB, UK.
Gillian IngramDepartment of Neurology, Helen Durham Centre for Neuroinflammatory Disease, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Claire HirstDepartment of Neurology, Helen Durham Centre for Neuroinflammatory Disease, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Mark WardleDepartment of Neurology, Helen Durham Centre for Neuroinflammatory Disease, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Trevor PickersgillDepartment of Neurology, Helen Durham Centre for Neuroinflammatory Disease, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.
Yoav Ben-ShlomoSchool of Social and Community Medicine, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK.
Neil RobertsonInstitute of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neuroscience, Cardiff University, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK. robertsonnp@cf.ac.uk.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L010305/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Relapses are a characteristic clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS), but an appreciation of factors that cause them remains elusive. In this study, we have examined seasonal variation of relapse in a large population-based MS cohort and correlated observed patterns with age, sex, disease course, and climatic factors. Relapse data were recorded prospectively in 2076 patients between 2005 and 2014. 3902 events were recorded in 1158 patients (range 0-24). There was significant seasonal variation in relapse rates (p < 0.0001) and this was associated with monthly hours of sunshine (odds ratio OR 1.08, p = 0.02). Relapse rates were highest in patients under the age of 30 (OR 1.42, p = 0.0005) and decreased with age. There was no evidence of different relapse rates for males compared to females (OR 0.90, p = 0.19). Identification of potentially modifiable environmental factors associated with temporal variation in relapse rates may allow alteration of risk on a population basis and alteration of outcome of established disease once established. Future epidemiological studies should examine dynamic environmental factors with serial prospective measurements and biological sampling. Significant seasonal differences in relapse rates highlight the importance of environmental factors in disease expression and should be taken into account when planning clinical trials in which relapse frequency is an outcome. In addition, identification of potentially modifiable factors associated with this variation may offer unique opportunities for alteration of risk of relapse and long-term outcome on a population level, and suggest putative biological mechanisms for relapse initiation.

Indexed as

SeasonsAdultAgedDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMultiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-RemittingProspective StudiesRecurrenceRetrospective StudiesEpidemiologyMultiple sclerosisRelapsesSeasonal

Identifiers

PMID28424900
PMCPMC5486559

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.