Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28405027›Full record

ArticleNature2017

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

Gytis Dudas, Luiz Max Carvalho, Trevor Bedford, Andrew J Tatem, Guy Baele, Nuno R Faria, Daniel J Park, Jason T Ladner, Armando Arias, Danny Asogun and 86 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 252 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
252citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

252 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Biological causes and impacts of rugged tree landscapes in phylodynamic inference.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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192 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

96 authors.

Gytis DudasInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
Luiz Max CarvalhoInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
Trevor BedfordVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA.
Andrew J TatemWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
Guy BaeleDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Nuno R FariaDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Daniel J ParkBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Jason T LadnerCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Armando AriasDepartment of Pathology, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
Danny AsogunInstitute of Lassa Fever Research and Control, Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Irrua, Nigeria.
Filip BielejecDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Sarah L CaddyDepartment of Pathology, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
Matthew CottenVirus Genomics, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SA, UK.
Jonathan D'AmbrozioCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Simon DellicourDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Antonino Di CaroThe European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
Joseph W DiclaroNaval Medical Research Unit 3, 3A Imtidad Ramses Street, Cairo 11517, Egypt.
Sophie DuraffourThe European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
Michael J ElmoreNational Infections Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wilts SP4 0JG, UK.
Lawrence S FakoliLiberian Institute for Biomedical Research, Charlesville, Liberia.
Ousmane FayeInstitut Pasteur de Dakar, Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, 36 Avenue Pasteur, BP 220, Dakar, Sénégal.
Merle L GilbertCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Sahr M GevaoUniversity of Sierra Leone, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
Stephen GireBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Adrianne Gladden-YoungBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Andreas GnirkeBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Augustine GobaViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, 1 Combema Road, Kenema, Sierra Leone.
Donald S GrantViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, 1 Combema Road, Kenema, Sierra Leone.
Bart L HaagmansDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 300 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Julian A HiscoxInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 2BE, UK.
Umaru JahUniversity of Makeni, Makeni, Sierra Leone.
Jeffrey R KugelmanCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Di LiuInstitute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Jia LuDepartment of Pathology, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
Christine M MalboeufBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Suzanne MateCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
David A MatthewsUniversity of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TD, UK.
Christian B MatrangaBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Luke W MeredithDepartment of Pathology, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
James QuBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Joshua QuickInstitute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
Suzan D PasDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 300 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
My V T PhanVirus Genomics, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SA, UK.
Georgios PollakisInstitute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 2BE, UK.
Chantal B ReuskenDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 300 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Mariano Sanchez-LockhartCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Stephen F SchaffnerBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
John S SchieffelinDepartment of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA.
Rachel S SealfonBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Etienne Simon-LoriereInstitut Pasteur, Functional Genetics of Infectious Diseases Unit, 28 rue du Docteur Roux, 75724 Paris Cedex 15, France.
Saskia L SmitsDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 300 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Kilian StoeckerThe European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
Lucy ThorneDepartment of Pathology, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
Ekaete Alice TobinInstitute of Lassa Fever Research and Control, Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Irrua, Nigeria.
Mohamed A VandiViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, 1 Combema Road, Kenema, Sierra Leone.
Simon J WatsonVirus Genomics, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SA, UK.
Kendra WestBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Shannon WhitmerViral Special Pathogens Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
Michael R WileyCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Sarah M WinnickiBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Shirlee WohlBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Roman WölfelThe European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
Nathan L YozwiakBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Kristian G AndersenThe Scripps Research Institute, Department of Immunology and Microbial Science, La Jolla, California 92037, USA.
Sylvia O BlydenMinistry of Social Welfare, Gender and Children's Affairs, New Englandville, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
Fatorma BolayLiberian Institute for Biomedical Research, Charlesville, Liberia.
Miles W CarrollThe European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
Bernice DahnMinstry of Health Liberia, Monrovia, Liberia.
Boubacar DialloWorld Health Organization, Conakry, Guinea.
Pierre FormentyWorld Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Christophe FraserOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7FZ, UK.
George F GaoInstitute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Robert F GarryDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA.
Ian GoodfellowDepartment of Pathology, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
Stephan GüntherThe European Mobile Laboratory Consortium, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
Christian T HappiDepartment of Biological Sciences, Redeemer's University, Ede, Osun State, Nigeria.
Edward C HolmesMarie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Charles Perkins Centre, School of Life and Environmental Sciences and Sydney Medical School, the University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia.
Brima KargboMinistry of Health and Sanitation, 4th Floor Youyi Building, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
Sakoba KeïtaMinistry of Health Guinea, Conakry, Guinea.
Paul KellamVirus Genomics, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SA, UK.
Marion P G KoopmansDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 300 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Jens H KuhnIntegrated Research Facility at Fort Detrick, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, B-8200 Research Plaza, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Nicholas J LomanInstitute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
N'Faly MagassoubaUniversité Gamal Abdel Nasser de Conakry, Laboratoire des Fièvres Hémorragiques en Guinée, Conakry, Guinea.
Dhamari NaidooWorld Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Stuart T NicholViral Special Pathogens Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
Tolbert NyenswahMinstry of Health Liberia, Monrovia, Liberia.
Gustavo PalaciosCenter for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland 21702, USA.
Oliver G PybusDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Pardis C SabetiBroad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA.
Amadou SallInstitut Pasteur de Dakar, Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, 36 Avenue Pasteur, BP 220, Dakar, Sénégal.
Ute StröherViral Special Pathogens Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.
Isatta WurieUniversity of Sierra Leone, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Biostatistics, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA.
Philippe LemeyDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Andrew RambautInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.

Funding

Viral Genomics: evolution, spread, and host interactionsU19AI110818 · NIAID · BROAD INSTITUTE, INC. · PI EARL, ASHLEE MIRIAM · 2014 to 2024
$66.5M
Scripps Translational Science InstituteUL1TR001114 · NCATS · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI TOPOL, ERIC JEFFREY · 2013 to 2017
$24.0M
SCRIPPS TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTE (UL1)UL1RR025774 · NCRR · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI TOPOL, ERIC JEFFREY · 2008 to 2011
$16.3M
Preclinical development of recombinant antigen diagnostics for Lassa feverU01AI082119 · NIAID · TULANE UNIVERSITY OF LOUISIANA · PI GARRY, ROBERT F · 2009 to 2013
$6.7M
Antibody immunotherapeutics for biodefense against Lassa virusR01AI104621 · NIAID · TULANE UNIVERSITY OF LOUISIANA · PI GARRY, ROBERT F · 2013 to 2017
$5.8M
Genomics, GPUs, and Next Generation Computational StatisticsR01HG006139 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI SOBEL, ERIC · 2011 to 2023
$5.1M
Real-time tracking of virus evolution for vaccine strain selection and epidemiological investigationR35GM119774 · NIGMS · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BEDFORD, TREVOR BC · 2016 to 2025
$4.1M
Elucidating Genetic Determinants of Resistance to Lassa Hemorrhagic FeverR01AI114855 · NIAID · BROAD INSTITUTE, INC. · PI SABETI, PARDIS CHRISTINE · 2015 to 2019
$3.8M
Recombinant antigen diagnostics for filovirusesR44AI088843 · NIAID · ZALGEN LABS, LLC · PI BOISEN, MATTHEW L · 2014 to 2016
$3.0M
STRUCTURE DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF EBOLA VIRUS RECEPTOR BINDING SITER01AI081982 · NIAID · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI SAPHIRE, ERICA OLLMANN · 2010 to 2014
$2.8M
Tracking Evolution and Spread of Viral Genomes by Geospatial Observation ErrorR01AI117011 · NIAID · ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY-TEMPE CAMPUS · PI GONZALEZ HERNANDEZ, GRACIELA, SCOTCH, MATTHEW · 2016 to 2019
$1.9M
Late-stage development toward commercialization of multilineage point-of-care Lassa fever diagnosticsR44AI115754 · NIAID · ZALGEN LABS, LLC · PI BRANCO, LUIS MANUEL · 2015 to 2016
$1.9M
European Research Council 260864Medical Research Council MC_UU_12014/12Medical Research Council MR/L015080/1Medical Research Council MR/M501621/1National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease 5R01AI/114855-03NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001114NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR025774NHGRI NIH HHS R01 HG006139NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG007480NIAID NIH HHS HHSN272200700016INIAID NIH HHS HHSN272201400048CNIAID NIH HHS R01 AI081982NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI104621NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI107034NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI114855NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI117011NIAID NIH HHS R13 AI104216NIAID NIH HHS R43 AI088843NIAID NIH HHS R44 AI088843NIAID NIH HHS R44 AI115754NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI082119NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI110818NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119774NIH HHS 1U01HG007480-01NIH HHS AI081982NIH HHS AI082119NIH HHS AI082805NIH HHS AI088843NIH HHS AI104216NIH HHS AI104621NIH HHS AI115754NIH HHS S10 OD020069Wellcome Trust 106866/Z/15/ZWellcome Trust 206298/Z/17/ZWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

Indexed as

ClimateDisease OutbreaksEbolavirusGenome, ViralGeographyHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHumansInternationalityLinear ModelsMolecular EpidemiologyPhylogenyTravel

Identifiers

PMID28405027
PMCPMC5712493

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.