ArticleScientific reports2017
Impact of metric and sample size on determining malaria hotspot boundaries.
Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identification of malaria hotspots in southwestern Benin through spatial joint modelling of malaria incidence and vector abundance.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- The Potential of Surveillance Data for Dengue Risk Mapping: An Evaluation of Different Approaches in Cuba.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Characterising spatial patterns of neglected tropical disease transmission using integrated sero-surveillance in Northern Ghana.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- A threshold-free approach with age-dependency for estimating malaria seroprevalence.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Spatial cluster analysis of Plasmodium vivax and P. malariae exposure using serological data among Haitian school children sampled between 2014 and 2016.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- IdentifyingeLife · 2021Article
- A unified and flexible modelling framework for the analysis of malaria serology data.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Discovering, Defining, and Summarizing Persistent Hotspots in SCORE Studies.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Using health facility-based serological surveillance to predict receptive areas at risk of malaria outbreaks in elimination areas.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- Do hotspots fuel malaria transmission: a village-scale spatio-temporal analysis of a 2-year cohort study in The Gambia.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Micro-epidemiology of mixed-species malaria infections in a rural population living in the Colombian Amazon region.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Using non-exceedance probabilities of policy-relevant malaria prevalence thresholds to identify areas of low transmission in Somalia.Malaria journal · 2018Article
- Heterogeneous exposure and hotspots for malaria vectors at three study sites in Uganda.Gates open research · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The spatial heterogeneity of malaria suggests that interventions may be targeted for maximum impact. It is unclear to what extent different metrics lead to consistent delineation of hotspot boundaries. Using data from a large community-based malaria survey in the western Kenyan highlands, we assessed the agreement between a model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to detect hotspots using Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence and serological evidence for exposure. Malaria transmission was widespread and highly heterogeneous with one third of the total population living in hotspots regardless of metric tested. Moderate agreement (Kappa = 0.424) was observed between hotspots defined based on parasite prevalence by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- and the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-1, AMA-1). While numerous biologically plausible hotspots were identified, their detection strongly relied on the proportion of the population sampled. When only 3% of the population was sampled, no PCR derived hotspots were reliably detected and at least 21% of the population was needed for reliable results. Similar results were observed for hotspots of seroprevalence. Hotspot boundaries are driven by the malaria diagnostic and sample size used to inform the model. These findings warn against the simplistic use of spatial analysis on available data to target malaria interventions in areas where hotspot boundaries are uncertain.
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