Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28397569›Full record

ArticleClinical trials (London, England)2017

Analysis of an ordinal endpoint for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization.

Ross L Peterson, David M Vock, John H Powers, Sean Emery, Eduardo Fernandez Cruz, Sally Hunsberger, Mamta K Jain, Sarah Pett, James D Neaton, INSIGHT FLU-IVIG Study Group

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical trials (London, England), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Efficacy and Safety of Sarilumab in Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Randomized Clinical Trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022
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  4. Trial
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  10. Optimizing endpoints in early phase clinical trials of acute respiratory distress syndrome.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Influenza Therapeutics in Clinical Practice-Challenges and Recent Advances.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in medicine · 2021
    Review
  16. Review
  17. SARS-COV2 infection in 30 HIV-infected patients followed-up in a French University Hospital.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ross L Peterson1 Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
David M Vock1 Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
John H Powers2 School of Medicine & Health Sciences, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
Sean Emery3 The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Eduardo Fernandez Cruz4 Departamento de Microbiología I, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.
Sally Hunsberger6 Biostatistics Research Branch (BRB), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Rockville, MD, USA.
Mamta K Jain7 Department of Internal Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.
Sarah Pett3 The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
James D Neaton1 Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
INSIGHT FLU-IVIG Study Group

Funding

CCR NIH HHS HHSN261200800001CCCR NIH HHS HHSN261201500001CIntramural NIH HHS Z99 AI999999Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/22NCI NIH HHS HHSN261200800001ENCI NIH HHS HHSN261201000031CNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201500001GNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201500001WNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201500003CNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201500003I
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background/Aims A single best endpoint for evaluating treatments of severe influenza requiring hospitalization has not been identified. A novel six-category ordinal endpoint of patient status is being used in a randomized controlled trial (FLU-Intravenous Immunoglobulin - FLU-IVIG) of intravenous immunoglobulin. We systematically examine four factors regarding the use of this ordinal endpoint that may affect power from fitting a proportional odds model: (1) deviations from the proportional odds assumption which result in the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol and which result in a diminished overall treatment effect, (2) deviations from the distribution of the placebo group assumed in the FLU-IVIG design, (3) the effect of patient misclassification among the six categories, and (4) the number of categories of the ordinal endpoint. We also consider interactions between the treatment effect (i.e. factor 1) and each other factor. Methods We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the effect of each factor. To study factor 1, we developed an algorithm for deriving distributions of the ordinal endpoint in the two treatment groups that deviated from proportional odds while maintaining the same overall treatment effect. For factor 2, we considered placebo group distributions which were more or less skewed than the one specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol by adding or subtracting a constant from the cumulative log odds. To assess factor 3, we added misclassification between adjacent pairs of categories that depend on subjective patient/clinician assessments. For factor 4, we collapsed some categories into single categories. Results Deviations from proportional odds reduced power at most from 80% to 77% given the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol. Misclassification and collapsing categories can reduce power by over 40 and 10 percentage points, respectively, when they affect categories with many patients and a discernible treatment effect. But collapsing categories that contain no treatment effect can raise power by over 20 percentage points. Differences in the distribution of the placebo group can raise power by over 20 percentage points or reduce power by over 40 percentage points depending on how patients are shifted to portions of the ordinal endpoint with a large treatment effect. Conclusion Provided that the overall treatment effect is maintained, deviations from proportional odds marginally reduce power. However, deviations from proportional odds can modify the effect of misclassification, the number of categories, and the distribution of the placebo group on power. In general, adjacent pairs of categories with many patients should be kept separate to help ensure that power is maintained at the pre-specified level.

Indexed as

Monte Carlo MethodRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicAlgorithmsData Interpretation, StatisticalHospitalizationHumansImmunoglobulins, IntravenousInfluenza, HumanProportional Hazards ModelsSeverity of Illness IndexTreatment OutcomeImmunoglobulins, IntravenousClinical trialsendpointsmisspecified modelproportional odds modelstatistical power

Identifiers

PMID28397569
PMCPMC5528156

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.