ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2017
Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 124 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
124 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 293 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economic evaluation of laboratory diagnostic test types in Covid-19 epidemic: A systematic review.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2022Pooled it
- Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Association between timeliness of detection, notification and response and the magnitude, severity and duration of disease outbreaks: a retrospective review of 84 outbreaks in Uganda, 2017-2022.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Biopolitics at the Nexus of Chronic and Infectious Diseases.Journal of bioethical inquiry · 2025Article
- A fundamental limit to the effectiveness of traveller screening with molecular tests.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Optimizing the Use of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests for the Timely Detection of and Response to COVID-19 in Schools and Markets in Uganda.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Quantifying the impact of contact tracing interview prioritisation strategies on disease transmission: A modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Infectious Disease as a Modifiable Risk Factor for Dementia: A Narrative Review.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- COVID-19: Recent Insight in Genomic Feature, Pathogenesis, Immunological Biomarkers, Treatment Options and Clinical Updates on SARS-CoV-2.Current genomics · 2024Review
- Article
- Assessing the perceived effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-Cov-2 transmission risk: an experimental study in Europe.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- ePyDGGA: automatic configuration for fitting epidemic curves.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Analysis of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic by time-series forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Temporal and Probabilistic Comparisons of Epidemic Interventions.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
64 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Strategies for containing an emerging infectious disease outbreak must be nonpharmaceutical when drugs or vaccines for the pathogen do not yet exist or are unavailable. The success of these nonpharmaceutical strategies will depend on not only the effectiveness of isolation measures but also the epidemiological characteristics of the infection. However, there is currently no systematic framework to assess the relationship between different containment strategies and the natural history and epidemiological dynamics of the pathogen. Here, we compare the effectiveness of quarantine and symptom monitoring, implemented via contact tracing, in controlling epidemics using an agent-based branching model. We examine the relationship between epidemic containment and the disease dynamics of symptoms and infectiousness for seven case-study diseases with diverse natural histories, including Ebola, influenza A, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We show that the comparative effectiveness of symptom monitoring and quarantine depends critically on the natural history of the infectious disease, its inherent transmissibility, and the intervention feasibility in the particular healthcare setting. The benefit of quarantine over symptom monitoring is generally maximized for fast-course diseases, but we show the conditions under which symptom monitoring alone can control certain outbreaks. This quantitative framework can guide policymakers on how best to use nonpharmaceutical interventions and prioritize research during an outbreak of an emerging pathogen.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.