ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2017
An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- RDA-PSO: A Computational Method to Quantify the Diffusive Dispersal of Insects.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Analysis of a diffusive two-strain malaria model with the carrying capacity of the environment for mosquitoes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Analysis of a two-strain malaria transmission model with spatial heterogeneity and vector-bias.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Article
- Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro.PloS one · 2020Article
- Optimal control of vaccination in a vector-borne reaction-diffusion model applied to Zika virus.Journal of mathematical biology · 2019Article
- Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic.
methodsPartial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed.
resultsThe epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil.
conclusionsThe results for the model simulations of the 2015-2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015-2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.
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