ArticlePeerJ2017
Temporal patterns and geographic heterogeneity of Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in French Polynesia and Central America.
Article in PeerJ, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifying Key Factors in Predicting Chikungunya and Zika Transmission Across French Polynesia and the French West Indies: A Data-Driven Probabilistic and Mathematical Modeling Approach.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Piecewise Modeling the Accumulated Daily Growth of COVID-19 Deaths: The Case of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Exploring the Pattern of Early COVID-19 Transmission Caused by Population Migration Based on 14 Cities in Hubei Province, China.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2021Article
- Mapping the cryptic spread of the 2015-2016 global Zika virus epidemic.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- Simple framework for real-time forecast in a data-limited situation: the Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in Brazil from 2015 to 2016 as an example.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Inferring the risk factors behind the geographical spread and transmission of Zika in the Americas.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Review
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Abstract
backgroundZika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in 67 countries/territories in the Oceania region and the Americas since 2015, prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare ZIKV as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016, due to its strong association with medical complications such as microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS). However, a substantial gap in knowledge still exists regarding differing temporal pattern and potential of transmission of ZIKV in different regions of the world.
methodsWe use a phenomenological model to ascertain the temporal patterns and transmission potential of ZIKV in various countries/territories, by fitting the model to Zika case data from Yap Island and French Polynesia in the Oceania region and 11 countries/territories with confirmed case data, namely, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, and Suriname, to pinpoint the waves of infections in each country/territory and to estimate the respective basic reproduction number
resultsSix of these time series datasets resulted in statistically significant model fit of at least one wave of reported cases, namely that of French Polynesia, Colombia, Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Suriname and Saint Martin. However, only Colombia and Guatemala exhibited two waves of cases while the others had only one wave. Temporal patterns of the second wave in Colombia and the single wave in Suriname are very similar, with the respective turning points separated by merely a week. Moreover, the mean estimates of DISCUSSION: Using the same modeling methodology, in this study we found a significant difference between transmissibility (as quantified by
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